Evolution of the risk perception of infection by COVID-19 – Evidence from the COVID-19 Barometer: Social Opinion

Paixão, Inês; Antunes, Marília; Soares, Patricia

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8940

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Authors

Paixão, Inês

Antunes, Marília

Soares, Patricia

Abstract(s)

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, several non-phar-maceutical interventions (NPI) have been adopted worldwide in an attempt to keep the growing transmission of the virus under control. Several factors might influence the effectiveness of NPI. This study aimed to evaluate the evolution of the perception of the risk of infection by COVID-19 in Portugal between March 2020 and March 2022, and to identify associated factors. We used the "Covid-19 Barometer: Social Opinion" barometer, which was launched at the beginning of the pan-demic in Portugal to identify and monitor the evolution of the Portuguese population's perception of the pandemic and its impact on daily life and was online during two years. We also considered COVID-19 incidence, stringency data, COVID-19 variants’ prevalence and Google searches on COVID-19.The outcome considered was the per-ceived risk of infection by COVID-19, which was classified into low versus high/moderate. The explanatory variables from the Barometer were grouped into dimensions: general factors (socio-demographic and health-related variables), adherence to protection measures, vaccine hesitancy and coping mechanisms.Considering the nature of this study and the outcome variable, generalized linear models were used to study the temporal evolution of the considered variables – in particular, mixed effects logistic regressions. One model was fit per group of vari-ables/dimension. Preliminary results show that, linked to a higher risk perception are lower levels of education, poor health status and working full-time at the workplace (as opposed to remote working) – the last two with a growing tendency over time. On the other hand, individuals with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis and a better mental health status are more likely to perceive lower risks, a propensity that diminishes over time.Students and unemployed individuals are also more likely to have a lower perception of risk, when compared to employed individuals of the same age and sex. Additionally, there is in general a higher probabil-ity of perceiving a lower risk of infection as time progresses.