Modelação e previsão do efeito do frio extreme na saúde da população: a base para o desenvolvimento de um sistema de alerta em tempo real

Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Dias, Carlos Matias; Antunes, Sílvia

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/3308

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Authors

Antunes, Liliana

Silva, Susana Pereira

Abstract(s)

The aim of the FRIESA Project was the development of a model able to predict risk situations for human health in extreme cold events and it implementation in a structured surveillance system for a pilot test. The fact that mortality in Portugal is higher in the colder months of the year (November to March) than in summer months, and the absence of a surveillance system of cold-related mortality such as the one that exists for the heat (ÍCARO Project, since 1999), were the main challenge to implement this project. The fact of during winter the risk of death increases during epidemics episodes, which can occur simultaneously with cold, makes the forecasts more difficult than those for summer months. The anticipation of occurrence of cold episodes with effects on mortality, provided by the results of this prediction, would be an advantage to the decision makers in the adoption of responses and mobilization of resources.