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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.
In brief: In brief Climate change and changes in emissions of ozone precursors will elevate future ground-level ozone in many parts of the world—the short-term exposure to which is linked to increased mortality. We explored future ozone-related acute excess mortality trends in 406 cities across 4 climate scenarios. Ozone-related mortality fractions increase in all scenarios except the one aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement. This underscores the urgent need for stricter air quality regulations globally.
Science for Society: Ground-level ozone—a product of reactions between other pollutants in the atmosphere—can trigger coughing and shortness of breath, worsen asthma, and cause damage to airways. Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone can lead to respiratory and cardiovascular disease and has been linked to higher rates of premature death. Climate change and changes in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone precursor pollutant are projected to increase ground-level ozone in many parts of the world. However, in the absence of a firm understanding of how ozone-related mortality will change in different regions, and under different climate, and air quality scenarios, our ability to create effective public health policies is limited. Our research indicates that the total deaths related to short-term ozone exposure will increase in 406 cities around the world under all studied scenarios, but the scenario aligned with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. These findings highlight the urgent need for stricter air quality regulations, as the current standards in many countries are not sufficient to address this growing threat.
Highlights: - Total ozone-related deaths increase across all studied scenarios; - Ozone-related mortality fractions rise in all but the Paris Agreement-aligned scenario; - Inadequate standards across countries necessitate tougher air quality controls.
In brief: In brief Climate change and changes in emissions of ozone precursors will elevate future ground-level ozone in many parts of the world—the short-term exposure to which is linked to increased mortality. We explored future ozone-related acute excess mortality trends in 406 cities across 4 climate scenarios. Ozone-related mortality fractions increase in all scenarios except the one aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement. This underscores the urgent need for stricter air quality regulations globally.
Science for Society: Ground-level ozone—a product of reactions between other pollutants in the atmosphere—can trigger coughing and shortness of breath, worsen asthma, and cause damage to airways. Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone can lead to respiratory and cardiovascular disease and has been linked to higher rates of premature death. Climate change and changes in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone precursor pollutant are projected to increase ground-level ozone in many parts of the world. However, in the absence of a firm understanding of how ozone-related mortality will change in different regions, and under different climate, and air quality scenarios, our ability to create effective public health policies is limited. Our research indicates that the total deaths related to short-term ozone exposure will increase in 406 cities around the world under all studied scenarios, but the scenario aligned with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. These findings highlight the urgent need for stricter air quality regulations, as the current standards in many countries are not sufficient to address this growing threat.
Highlights: - Total ozone-related deaths increase across all studied scenarios; - Ozone-related mortality fractions rise in all but the Paris Agreement-aligned scenario; - Inadequate standards across countries necessitate tougher air quality controls.
Description
Keywords
Ozone Climate Changes Air Quality Human Exposure Excess Mortality Paris Agreement Health Policies Avaliação do Risco Ar e Saúde Ocupacional
Pedagogical Context
Citation
One Earth. 2024 Feb 16;7(2):325-335. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001
Publisher
Cell Press