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Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement

2024-02-16Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorDomingo, Nina G.G.
dc.contributor.authorFiore, Arlene M.
dc.contributor.authorLamarque, Jean-Francois
dc.contributor.authorKinney, Patrick L.
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Leiwen
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorBreitner, Susanne
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorMasselot, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Susana das Neves Pereira da
dc.contributor.authorSheng Ng, Chris Fook
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorOrru, Hans
dc.contributor.authorMaasikmets, Marek
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorKatsouyanni, Klea
dc.contributor.authorSamoli, Evangelia
dc.contributor.authorScortichini, Matteo
dc.contributor.authorStafoggia, Massimo
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorAlahmad, Barrak
dc.contributor.authorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.contributor.authorDe la Cruz Valencia, César
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah
dc.contributor.authorGarland, Rebecca M.
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorÅström, Christofer
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue Leon
dc.contributor.authorPan, Shih-Chun
dc.contributor.authorColistro, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
dc.contributor.authorChen, Kai
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-30T12:02:54Z
dc.date.available2025-01-30T12:02:54Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-16
dc.description.abstractShort-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.eng
dc.description.abstractIn brief: In brief Climate change and changes in emissions of ozone precursors will elevate future ground-level ozone in many parts of the world—the short-term exposure to which is linked to increased mortality. We explored future ozone-related acute excess mortality trends in 406 cities across 4 climate scenarios. Ozone-related mortality fractions increase in all scenarios except the one aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement. This underscores the urgent need for stricter air quality regulations globally.eng
dc.description.abstractScience for Society: Ground-level ozone—a product of reactions between other pollutants in the atmosphere—can trigger coughing and shortness of breath, worsen asthma, and cause damage to airways. Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone can lead to respiratory and cardiovascular disease and has been linked to higher rates of premature death. Climate change and changes in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone precursor pollutant are projected to increase ground-level ozone in many parts of the world. However, in the absence of a firm understanding of how ozone-related mortality will change in different regions, and under different climate, and air quality scenarios, our ability to create effective public health policies is limited. Our research indicates that the total deaths related to short-term ozone exposure will increase in 406 cities around the world under all studied scenarios, but the scenario aligned with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. These findings highlight the urgent need for stricter air quality regulations, as the current standards in many countries are not sufficient to address this growing threat.eng
dc.description.abstractHighlights: - Total ozone-related deaths increase across all studied scenarios; - Ozone-related mortality fractions rise in all but the Paris Agreement-aligned scenario; - Inadequate standards across countries necessitate tougher air quality controls.por
dc.description.sponsorshipA.G. and A.S. acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. acknowledges support from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (reference: PTDC/CTA-AMB/3040/2021; https://doi.org/10.54499/PTDC/CTA-AMB/3040/2021).
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationOne Earth. 2024 Feb 16;7(2):325-335. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2590-3330
dc.identifier.pmid38420618
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10325
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherCell Press
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relationPTDC/CTA-AMB/3040/2021
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7615682/
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectOzone
dc.subjectClimate Changes
dc.subjectAir Quality
dc.subjectHuman Exposure
dc.subjectExcess Mortality
dc.subjectParis Agreement
dc.subjectHealth Policies
dc.subjectAvaliação do Risco
dc.subjectAr e Saúde Ocupacional
dc.titleOzone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreementpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/Concurso de Projetos IC&DT em Todos os Domínios Científicos/PTDC%2FCTA-AMB%2F3040%2F2021/PT
oaire.citation.endPage335pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue2pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage325pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleOne Earthpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume7pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamConcurso de Projetos IC&DT em Todos os Domínios Científicos
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublicationd2b25b54-c60e-4030-bb5a-660fbf0426a9
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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