Loading...
Research Project
Exposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
Funder
Authors
Publications
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Publication . Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.; Scovronick, N.; Sera, F.; Royé, D.; Schneider, R.; Tobias, A.; Astrom, C.; Guo, Y.; Honda, Y.; Hondula, D.M.; Abrutzky, R.; Tong, S.; Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento; Lavigne, E.; Correa, P. Matus; Ortega, N. Valdes; Kan, H.; Osorio, S.; Kyselý, J.; Urban, A.; Orru, H.; Indermitte, E.; Jaakkola, J.J.K.; Ryti, N.; Pascal, M.; Schneider, A.; Katsouyanni, K.; Samoli, E.; Mayvaneh, F.; Entezari, A.; Goodman, P.; Zeka, A.; Michelozzi, P.; de’Donato, F.; Hashizume, M.; Alahmad, B.; Diaz, M. Hurtado; Valencia, C. De La Cruz; Overcenco, A.; Houthuijs, D.; Ameling, C.; Rao, S.; Di Ruscio, F.; Carrasco-Escobar, G.; Seposo, X.; Silva, S.; Madureira, J.; Holobaca, I.H.; Fratianni, S.; Acquaotta, F.; Kim, H.; Lee, W.; Iniguez, C.; Forsberg, B.; Ragettli, M.S.; Guo, Y.L.L.; Chen, B.Y.; Li, S.; Armstrong, B.; Aleman, A.; Zanobetti, A.; Schwartz, J.; Dang, T.N.; Dung, D.V.; Gillett, N.; Haines, A.; Mengel, M.; Huber, V.; Gasparrini, A.
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
Short-Term Association between Sulfur Dioxide and Mortality: A Multicountry Analysis in 399 Cities
Publication . O’Brien, Edward; Masselot, Pierre; Sera, Francesco; Roye, Dominic; Breitner, Susanne; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Madureira, Joana; Tobias, Aurelio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Bell, Michelle L.; Lavigne, Eric; Kan, Haidong; Gasparrini, Antonio; MCC Collaborative Research Network
Background: Epidemiological evidence on the health risks of sulfur dioxide (sulfur dioxide SO2) is more limited compared with other pollutants, and doubts remain on several aspects, such as the form of the exposure–response relationship, the potential role of copollutants, as well as the actual risk at low concentrations and possible temporal variation in risks.
Objectives: Our aim was to assess the short-term association between exposure to sulfur dioxide SO2 and daily mortality in a large multilocation data set, using advanced study designs and statistical techniques.
Methods: The analysis included 43,729,018 deaths that occurred in 399 cities within 23 countries between 1980 and 2018. A two-stage design was applied to assess the association between the daily concentration of sulfur dioxide SO2 and mortality counts, including first-stage time-series regressions and second-stage multilevel random-effect meta-analyses. Secondary analyses assessed the exposure–response shape and the lag structure using spline terms and distributed lag models, respectively, and temporal variations in risk using a longitudinal meta-regression. Bi-pollutant models were applied to examine confounding effects of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 10 micrometers≤10μm (particulate matter begin subscript 10 end subscriptPM10) and 2.5 micrometers2.5μm (particulate matter begin subscript 2.5 end subscriptPM2.5), ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and carbon monoxide. Associations were reported as relative risks (RRs) and fractions of excess deaths.
Results: The average daily concentration of sulfur dioxideSO2 across the 399 cities was 11.7 micrograms per meter cubed11.7 μg/m3, with 4.7% of days above the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline limit (40 micrograms per meter cubed40 μg/m3, 24-h average), although the exceedances occurred predominantly in specific locations. Exposure levels decreased considerably during the study period, from an average concentration of 19.0 micrograms per meter cubed19.0 μg/m3 in 1980–1989 to 6.3 micrograms per meter cubed6.3 μg/m3 in 2010–2018. For all locations combined, a 10 microgram per meter cubed10-μg/m3 increase in daily sulfur dioxide SO2 was associated with an RR of mortality of 1.0045 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0019, 1.0070], with the risk being stable over time but with substantial between-country heterogeneity. Short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide SO2 was associated with an excess mortality fraction of 0.50% [95% empirical CI (eCI): 0.42%, 0.57%] in the 399 cities, although decreasing from 0.74% (0.61%, 0.85%) in 1980–1989 to 0.37% (0.27%, 0.47%) in 2010–2018. There was some evidence of nonlinearity, with a steep exposure–response relationship at low concentrations and the risk attenuating at higher levels. The relevant lag window was 0–3 d. Significant positive associations remained after controlling for other pollutants.
Discussion: The analysis revealed independent mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to sulfur dioxideSO2, with no evidence of a threshold. Levels below the current WHO guidelines for 24-h averages were still associated with substantial excess mortality, indicating the potential benefits of stricter air quality standards.
Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries
Publication . Alahmad, Barrak; Khraishah, Haitham; Royé, Dominic; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Guo, Yuming; Papatheodorou, Stefania I.; Achilleos, Souzana; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Pan, Shih-Chun; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Colistro, Valentina; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do-Van; De' Donato, Francesca K.; Entezari, Alireza; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Indermitte, Ene; Íñiguez, Carmen; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Kim, Ho; Lavigne, Eric; Lee, Whanhee; Li, Shanshan; Madureira, Joana; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Orru, Hans; Overcenco, Ala Vladimir; Ragettli, Martina S.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Scovronick, Noah; Seposo, Xerxes; Sera, Francesco; Silva, Susana; Stafoggia, Massimo; Tobias, Aurelio; Garshick, Eric; Bernstein, Aaron S.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Koutrakis, Petros
Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths.
Methods: We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days.
Results: The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1–2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9–9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4–2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2–13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively.
Conclusions: Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day—and especially under a changing climate.
Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country
Publication . Lo, Eunice; Mitchell, Dann M.; Buzan, Jonathan R.; Zscheischler, Jakob; Schneider, Rochelle; Mistry, Malcolm N.; Kyselý, Jan; Lavigne, Éric; Silva, Susana; Royé, Dominic; Urban, Aleš; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo‐Cabrera, Ana M.
Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.
Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe
Publication . Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Li, Shanshan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Van Dung, Do; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de’Donato, Francesca; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Bell, Michelle L.; Guo, Yuming
Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.
Organizational Units
Description
Keywords
Contributors
Funders
Funding agency
European Commission
Funding programme
H2020
Funding Award Number
820655