Percorrer por autor "Yu, Pei"
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- Assessing global factors associated with tropical cyclone-related mortality: A population-based longitudinal studyPublication . Huang, Wenzhong; Yang, Zhengyu; Otto, Christian; Mengel, Matthias; Hales, Simon; Zhang, Yiwen; Xu, Rongbin; Bell, Michelle L.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Kan, Haidong; Sera, Francesco; Schwartz, Joel; Lavigne, Eric; Hundessa, Samuel; Yu, Wenhua; Carlos Chua, Paul Lester; Seposo, Xerxes; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Hashizume, Masahiro; Z S Coelho, Micheline S.; Xu, Zhihu; Ye, Tingting; Yu, Pei; Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Liu, Yanming; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; MCC CollaboratorsBackground: The underlying factors associated with the substantial global tropical cyclone (TC)-related mortality burden, characterized by its highly variable spatiotemporal patterns, remain unclear. We aimed to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. Methods: We collected mortality records from 2034 locations in 68 countries/territories across five continents (2000-2019) to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. Bayesian ensemble models were applied to estimate the associated mortality for each TC event in each location. A random forest regression (RFR) model was employed to assess the relative statistical importance of TC and location characteristics, as well as their interactions, regarding the TC-related mortality. Findings: For TC physical characteristics, the TC-associated cumulative rainfall consistently exhibited stronger influence on mortality than TC-induced surge-driven flood depth or maximum sustained windspeed. However, sociodemographic factors, including population traits (e.g., population density, proportion of the population aged ≤ 9 years, percent of the population aged ≥ 65 years) and socioeconomic and infrastructure development (e.g., built-up ratio), showed greater relative importance than the TC physical attributes and accounted for the majority of the explained variations in TC-related mortality. Furthermore, cumulative rainfall interacted strongly with local sociodemographic conditions and was potentially the most important associated factor for disparities in mortality arising from factor interactions. Interpretation: The findings highlight the critical role of sociodemographic factors in explaining the global spatiotemporal variability of TC-related mortality, surpassing the relative importance of TC intensity. TC-related rainfall could be a key associated physical factor of the global mortality burden.
- Improved global air quality health index reveals ozone and nitrogen dioxide as main drivers of air-pollution-related acute mortalityPublication . Huang, Wenzhong; Li, Tiantian; Masselot, Pierre; Xu, Rongbin; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sera, Francesco; Bell, Michelle L.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Breitner, Susanne; Tong, Shilu; Kan, Haidong; Yang, Zhengyu; Zhang, Yiwen; Yu, Wenhua; Yu, Pei; Zhou, Shuang; Sun, Qinghua; Zhang, Jingwei; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Guo, Yue Leon; Gaio, Vânia; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; MCC Collaborative Research NetworkAmbient air pollutants are leading contributors to global mortality. Despite the well-established risks, most studies have relied on single-pollutant models in limited regions, leaving the combined effects and individual contributions of pollutants unclear, particularly across countries. Here, we integrate daily mortality and air pollutant (nitrogen dioxide [NO], ozone [O], fine particulate matter, and sulfur dioxide) data from 482 cities in 12 countries/territories from 1998 to 2021 to assess the joint mortality risks and identify the main contributing pollutant through an air quality health index of multi-pollutant constrained groupwise additive models (AQHI-Multi). AQHI-Multi outperformed commonly used air quality indices in capturing the overall mortality risks. O and NO were the leading contributors (accounting for over 70% across countries/territories), with O's share increasing slightly to moderately in most countries/territories. These findings highlight the need for developing air quality indices using advanced multi-pollutant models and the emerging global significance of targeted control of O and NO.
- Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series studyPublication . Yang, Zhengyu; Huang, Wenzhong; McKenzie, Joanne E.; Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Pei; Ye, Tingting; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Kyselý, Jan; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; MCC Collaborative Research NetworkObjective: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. Design: Time series study. Setting: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. Participants: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. Main outcome measures: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. Results: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods. Conclusions: This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.