Browsing by Author "Scortichini, Matteo"
Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 citiesPublication . Chen, Kai; Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Stafoggia, Massimo; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Matus, Patricia; Valdés, Nicolás; Kan, Haidong; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Huber, Veronika; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Holobâcă, Iulian Horia; Fratianni, Simona; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S-; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Li, Shanshan; Milojevic, Ai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L-; Gasparrini, Antonio; Schneider, AlexandraBackground: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. Methods: We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure-response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. Findings: Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32-1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure-response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure-response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. Interpretation: This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants.
- Ambient particulate air pollution and daily mortality in 652 citiesPublication . Liu, Cong; Chen, Renjie; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline S.Z.S.; Saldiva, Paulo H.N.; Lavigne, Eric; Matus, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Osorio Garcia, Samuel; Pascal, Mathilde; Stafoggia, Massimo; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, João P.; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Bell, Michelle L.; Wright, Caradee Y.; Scovronick, Noah; Garland, Rebecca M.; Milojevic, Ai; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Chen, Jianmin; Wu, Tangchun; Cohen, Aaron; Gasparrini, Antonio; Kan, HaidongThe systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others).
- Excess all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in Europe, December 2016 to February 2017Publication . Vestergaard, Lasse S; Nielsen, Jens; Krause, Tyra G; Espenhain, Laura; Tersago, Katrien; Bustos Sierra, Natalia; Denissov, Gleb; Innos, Kaire; Virtanen, Mikko J; Fouillet, Anne; Lytras, Theodore; Paldy, Anna; Bobvos, Janos; Domegan, Lisa; O’Donnell, Joan; Scortichini, Matteo; de Martino, Annamaria; England, Kathleen; Calleja, Neville; van Asten, Liselotte; Teirlinck, Anne C; Tønnessen, Ragnhild; White, Richard A; Silva, Susana Pereira; Rodrigues, Ana Paula; Larrauri, Amparo; Leon, Inmaculada; Farah, Ahmed; Junker, Christoph; Sinnathamby, Mary; Pebody, Richard G; Reynolds, Arlene; Bishop, Jennifer; Gross, Diane; Adlhoch, Cornelia; Penttinen, Pasi; Mølbak, KåreSince December 2016, excess all-cause mortality was observed in many European countries, especially among people aged ≥ 65 years. We estimated all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in 19 European countries/regions. Excess mortality was primarily explained by circulation of influenza virus A(H3N2). Cold weather snaps contributed in some countries. The pattern was similar to the last major influenza A(H3N2) season in 2014/15 in Europe, although starting earlier in line with the early influenza season start.
- Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countriesPublication . Rai, Masna; Stafoggia, Massimo; de'Donato, Francesca; Scortichini, Matteo; Zafeiratou, Sofia; Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana; Zhang, Siqi; Katsouyanni, Klea; Samoli, Evangelia; Rao, Shilpa; Lavigne, Eric; Guo, Yuming; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Maasikmets, Marek; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo; Pascal, Mathilde; Hashizume, Masahiro; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Alahmad, Barrak; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Scovronick, Noah; Garland, Rebecca M.; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Ragettli, Martina S.; Leon Guo, Yue-Liang; Pan, Shih-Chun; Li, Shanshan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sera, Francesco; Masselot, Pierre; Schwartz, Joel; Zanobetti, Antonella; Bell, Michelle L.; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, SusanneHighlights: - Heat effect modification by air pollution on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was investigated across 482 cities.- Heat effect was seen to be significantly modified by air pollutants PM10, PM2.5, O3, and NO2. -This study is the most extensive research to date investigating the heat effect modification on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. - This is the first-ever study to deeply investigate effect modifications by air pollutants such as PM2.5 and NO2.
- Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countriesPublication . Stafoggia, Massimo; Michelozzi, Paola; Schneider, Alexandra; Armstrong, Ben; Scortichini, Matteo; Rai, Masna; Achilleos, Souzana; Alahmad, Barrak; Analitis, Antonis; Åström, Christofer; Bell, Michelle L.; Calleja, Neville; Krage Carlsen, Hanne; Carrasco, Gabriel; Paul Cauchi, John; DSZS Coelho, Micheline; Correa, Patricia M.; Diaz, Magali H.; Entezari, Alireza; Forsberg, Bertil; Garland, Rebecca M.; Leon Guo, Yue; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Holobaca, Iulian H.; Íñiguez, Carmen; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Kan, Haidong; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kim, Ho; Kyselý, Jan; Lavigne, Eric; Lee, Whanhee; Li, Shanshan; Maasikmets, Marek; Madureira, Joana; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Nunes, Baltazar; Orru, Hans; V Ortega, Nicolás; Osorio, Samuel; Palomares, Alfonso D.L.; Pan, Shih-Chun; Pascal, Mathilde; Ragettli, Martina S; Rao, Shilpa; Raz, Raanan; Roye, Dominic; Ryti, Niilo; HN Saldiva, Paulo; Samoli, Evangelia; Schwartz, Joel; Scovronick, Noah; Sera, Francesco; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; DLC Valencia, César; Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Urban, Aleš; Gasparrini, Antonio; Breitner, Susanne; de' Donato, Francesca K.Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 μg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 μg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.
- Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locationsPublication . Chen, Gongbo; Guo, Yuming; Yue, Xu; Tong, Shilu; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell, Michelle L.; Armstrong, Ben; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Lavigne, Eric; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Kan, Haidong; Royé, Dominic; Milojevic, Ai; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Forsberg, Bertil; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Van Dung, Do; Samoli, Evangelia; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Lei, Yadong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Teixeira, João Paulo; Madureira, Joana; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Maasikmets, Marek; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Stafoggia, Massimo; Pascal, Mathilde; Scortichini, Matteo; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Micheline; Valdés Ortega, Nicolás; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Scovronick, Noah; Matus, Patricia; Goodman, Patrick; Garland, Rebecca M.; Abrutzky, Rosana; Garcia, Samuel Osorio; Rao, Shilpa; Fratianni, Simona; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Ye, Tingting; Yu, Wenhua; Abramson, Michael J.; Samet, Jonathan M.; Li, ShanshanBackground: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. Findings: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. Interpretation: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.
- Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris AgreementPublication . Domingo, Nina G.G.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Kinney, Patrick L.; Jiang, Leiwen; Gasparrini, Antonio; Breitner, Susanne; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Masselot, Pierre; Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira da; Sheng Ng, Chris Fook; Kyselý, Jan; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Kan, Haidong; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Maasikmets, Marek; Pascal, Mathilde; Katsouyanni, Klea; Samoli, Evangelia; Scortichini, Matteo; Stafoggia, Massimo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Alahmad, Barrak; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Scovronick, Noah; Garland, Rebecca M.; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Colistro, Valentina; Bell, Michelle; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Schneider, Alexandra; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Chen, KaiShort-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.
- Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variabilityPublication . Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Abrutzky, Rosana; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Kan, Haidong; Garcia, Samuel Osorio; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, João Paulo; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Do Van, Dung; Mayvaneh, Fetemeh; Overcenco, Ala; Li, Shanshan; Guo, YumingAn increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
- Short term association between ozone and mortality: global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20 countriesPublication . Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Sera, Francesco; Liu, Cong; Armstrong, Ben; Milojevic, A.i.; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Pascal, Mathilde; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Samoli, Evangelia; Stafoggia, Massimo; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Silva, Susana; Madureira, Joana; Scovronick, Noah; Garland, Rebecca M.; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Röösli, Martin; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Kan, Haidong; Gasparrini, AntonioObjective: To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network. Population: Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only). Results: A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively. Conclusions: Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
