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Heat-related mortality amplified during the COVID-19 pandemic

2022-01-21Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorSousa, Pedro
dc.contributor.authorTrigo, Ricardo
dc.contributor.authorRusso, Ana
dc.contributor.authorGeirinhas, João
dc.contributor.authorRodrigues, Ana Paula
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Susana
dc.contributor.authorTorres, Ana Rita
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-26T10:45:04Z
dc.date.available2023-05-26T10:45:04Z
dc.date.issued2022-01-21
dc.description.abstractExcess mortality not directly related to the virus has been shown to have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, changes in heat-related mortality during the pandemic have not been addressed in detail. Here, we performed an observational study crossing daily mortality data collected in Portugal (SICO/DGS) with high-resolution temperature series (ERA5/ECMWF), characterizing their relation in the pre-pandemic, and how it aggravated during 2020. The combined result of COVID-19 and extreme temperatures caused the largest annual mortality burden in recent decades (~ 12 000 excess deaths [~ 11% above baseline]). COVID-19 caused the largest fraction of excess mortality during March to May (62%) and from October onwards (85%). During summer, its direct impact was residual, and deaths not reported as COVID-19 dominated excess mortality (553 versus 3 968). A prolonged hot spell led mortality to the upper tertile, reaching its peak in mid-July (+ 45% deaths/day). The lethality ratio (+ 14 deaths per cumulated ºC) was higher than that observed in recent heatwaves. We used a statistical model to estimate expected deaths due to cold/heat, indicating an amplification of at least 50% in heat-related deaths during 2020 compared to pre-pandemic years. Our findings suggest mortality during 2020 has been indirectly amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the disruption of healthcare systems and fear of population in attending healthcare facilities (expressed in emergency room admissions decreases). While lockdown measures and healthcare systems reorganization prevented deaths directly related to the virus, a significant burden due to other causes represents a strong secondary impact. This was particularly relevant during summer hot spells, when the lethality ratio reached magnitudes not experienced since the 2003 heatwaves. This severe amplification of heat-related mortality during 2020 stresses the need to resume normal healthcare services and public health awareness.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was partially funded by national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) under project IMPECAF (PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017) and project HOLMODRIVE (PTDC/CTA-GEO/29029/2017). AR, PMS, and RT are also grateful by the FCT funding UID GEO 50019 2020–Instituto Dom Luiz. JLG acknowledges FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the PhD Grant 2020.05198.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationInt J Biometeorol. 2022 Mar;66(3):457-468. doi: 10.1007/s00484-021-02192-z. Epub 2022 Jan 21.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02192-zpt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0020-7128
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8628
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringerpt_PT
dc.relationNorth Atlantic Atmospheric Patterns influence on Western Iberia Climate: From the Lateglacial to the Present
dc.relationInstituto Dom Luiz
dc.relationInstituto Dom Luiz
dc.relationAssessment of the concurrence of heatwaves and droughts in Southeast Brazil under present and future climate change conditions: Impacts on public health
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-021-02192-zpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectMortalidadept_PT
dc.subjectEstados de Saúde e de Doençapt_PT
dc.subjectMonitorização em Saúdept_PT
dc.subjectCalor Extremopt_PT
dc.subjectHeatwavespt_PT
dc.subjectMortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectPublic Healthpt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19pt_PT
dc.subjectPortugalpt_PT
dc.titleHeat-related mortality amplified during the COVID-19 pandemicpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleNorth Atlantic Atmospheric Patterns influence on Western Iberia Climate: From the Lateglacial to the Present
oaire.awardTitleInstituto Dom Luiz
oaire.awardTitleInstituto Dom Luiz
oaire.awardTitleAssessment of the concurrence of heatwaves and droughts in Southeast Brazil under present and future climate change conditions: Impacts on public health
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FCTA-CLI%2F28902%2F2017/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FCTA-GEO%2F29029%2F2017/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F50019%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F50019%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//2020.05198.BD/PT
oaire.citation.endPage468pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue3pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage457pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleInternational Journal of Biometeorologypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume66pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameRodrigues
person.familyNamedas Neves Pereira da Silva
person.familyNameTorres
person.givenNameAna Paula
person.givenNameSusana
person.givenNameAna Rita
person.identifier.ciencia-idB718-8EF6-EBD8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2264-4723
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2524-0548
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-0486-647X
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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