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Estimating the urban heat-related mortality burden due to greenness: a global modelling study

2025-04-30Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorWu, Yao
dc.contributor.authorWen, Bo
dc.contributor.authorYe, Tingting
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Yanming
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorRoye, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorAchilleos, Souzana
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorde'Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authordas Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-14T16:02:11Z
dc.date.available2026-01-14T16:02:11Z
dc.date.issued2025-04-30
dc.description.abstractBackground: Heat exposure poses a substantial public health threat. Increasing greenness has been suggested as a mitigation strategy due to its cooling effect and potential to modify the heat-mortality association. This study aimed to comprehensively estimate the effects of increased greenness on heat-related deaths. Methods: We applied a multistage meta-analytical approach to estimate the potential reduction in global heat-related deaths by increasing greenness in the warm season in 2000-19 in 11 534 urban areas. We used the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to indicate greenness and a random forest model to predict daily temperatures in counterfactual EVI scenarios. In the factual EVI scenarios, daily mortality and weather variables from 830 locations in 53 countries were extracted from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network and used to assess heat-mortality associations. These associations were then extrapolated to each urban area under both factual and counterfactual EVI scenarios based on meta-regression models. Findings: We estimated that EVI increased by 10% would decrease the global population-weighted warm-season mean temperature by 0·08°C, EVI increased by 20% would decrease temperature by 0·14°C, and EVI increased by 30% would decrease temperature by 0·19°C. In the factual scenario, 3 153 225 (2·48%) of 127 179 341 total deaths could be attributed to heat exposure. The attributable fraction of heat-related deaths (as a fraction of total deaths) in 2000-19 would decrease by 0·67 (95% empirical CI 0·53-0·82) percentage points in the 10% scenario, 0·80 (0·63-0·97) percentage points in the 20% scenario, and 0·91 (0·72-1·10) percentage points in the 30% scenario, compared with the factual scenario. South Europe was modelled to have the largest decrease in attributable fraction of heat-related mortality. Interpretation: This modelling study suggests that increased greenness could substantially reduce the heat-related mortality burden. Preserving and expanding greenness might be potential strategies to lower ambient temperature and reduce the health impacts of heat exposure.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by Australian Research Council (DP210102076), and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581).
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health. 2025 Jul;9(7):101235. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00062-2. Epub 2025 Apr 30
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00062-2
dc.identifier.eissn2542-5196
dc.identifier.pmid40318693
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10698
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(25)00062-2/fulltext
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectUrban Heat
dc.subjectGreenness
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleEstimating the urban heat-related mortality burden due to greenness: a global modelling studyeng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue7
oaire.citation.startPage00062-2
oaire.citation.titleThe Lancet Planetary Health
oaire.citation.volume9
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNamedas Neves Pereira da Silva
person.givenNameSusana
person.identifier.ciencia-idB718-8EF6-EBD8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2524-0548
relation.isAuthorOfPublication49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8

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