Repository logo
 
Publication

Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis

2024-10-09Journal article Open access
Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorHe, Cheng
dc.contributor.authorBreitner-Busch, Susanne
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorChen, Kai
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Siqi
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorRoyé, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorde’Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Staglior
dc.contributor.authorSaldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorOrru,Hans
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, Ene
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorKim, Yoonhee
dc.contributor.authorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.contributor.authorArellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix
dc.contributor.authorOvercenco, Ala
dc.contributor.authorKlompmaker, Jochem
dc.contributor.authorRao, Shilpa
dc.contributor.authorPalomares, Alfonso Diz-Lois
dc.contributor.authorCarrasco, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authordas Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana
dc.contributor.authorJoana Madureira
dc.contributor.authorHolobaca, Iulian-Horia
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah
dc.contributor.authorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue Leon
dc.contributor.authorPan, Shih-Chun
dc.contributor.authorOsorio, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.contributor.authorDung, Do Van
dc.contributor.authorSchneider. Alexandra
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-14T16:22:34Z
dc.date.available2025-02-14T16:22:34Z
dc.date.issued2024-10-09
dc.description.abstractObjective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. Main outcome measure: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. Results: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. Conclusion: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.por
dc.description.sponsorshipCH was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
dc.identifier.citationBMJ. 2024 Oct 9:387:e080944. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080944
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/bmj-2024-080944
dc.identifier.issn1759-2151
dc.identifier.pmid39384295
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10349
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherBMJ Publishing Group
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj-2024-080944
dc.relation.ispartofBMJ
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectRainfall
dc.subjectTime Series
dc.subjectTwo Stage
dc.subjectCardiovascular Diseases
dc.subjectGlobal Health
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.subjectAvaliação do Risco
dc.titleRainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPagee080944
oaire.citation.titleBritish Medical Journal
oaire.citation.volume387
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNamedas Neves Pereira da Silva
person.givenNameSusana
person.identifier.ciencia-idB718-8EF6-EBD8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2524-0548
relation.isAuthorOfPublication49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
bmj-2024-080944.full.pdf
Size:
5.19 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
4.03 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

DEP - Artigos em revistas internacionais
DSA - Artigos em revistas internacionais
INSA - Artigos em revistas internacionais