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Percorrer por autor "Michelozzi, Paola"

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  • Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality
    Publication . Mistry, Malcolm N.; Schneider, Rochelle; Masselot, Pierre; Royé, Dominic; Armstrong, Ben; Kyselý, Jan; Orru, Hans; Sera, Francesco; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Éric; Urban, Aleš; Madureira, Joana; García-León, David; Ibarreta, Dolores; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Feyen, Luc; de Schrijver, Evan; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Pascal, Mathilde; Tobias, Aurelio; Alahmad, Barrak; Abrutzky, Rosana; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Correa, Patricia Matus; Orteg, Nicolás Valdés; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo; Schneider, Alexandra; Huber, Veronika; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Entezari, Alireza; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Michelozzi, Paola; de’Donato, Francesca; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kim, Yoonhee; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Overcenco, Ala; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Rao, Shilpa; Seposo, Xerxes; Nunes, Baltazar; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Colistro, Valentina; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van Dung, Do; Guo, Yuming; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Gasparrini, Antonio
    Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.
    2022-03-25Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe
    Publication . Masselot, Pierre; Mistry, Malcolm; Vanoli, Jacopo; Schneider, Rochelle; Iungman, Tamara; Garcia-Leon, David; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Feyen, Luc; Orru, Hans; Urban, Aleš; Breitner, Susanne; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Samoli, Evangelia; Stafoggia, Massimo; de’Donato, Francesca; Rao, Shilpa; Armstrong, Ben; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Gasparrini, Antonio; Achilleos, Souzana; Kyselý, Jan; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo; Pascal, Mathilde; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Silva, Susana; Madureira, Joana; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Surname, First name; Zafeiratou, Sofia; Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana; Monteiro, Ana; Rai, Masna; Zhang, Siqi; Aunan, Kristin
    Background: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. Methods: We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. Findings: Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. Interpretation: Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios.
    2023-03-16Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe
    Publication . Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Li, Shanshan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Van Dung, Do; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de’Donato, Francesca; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Bell, Michelle L.; Guo, Yuming
    Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.
    2022-03-11Artigo científico Acesso restrito Ver mais
  • Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale
    Publication . Tobías, Aurelio; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Sera, Francesco; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Kim, Yoonhee; Roye, Dominic; Chung, Yeonseung; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Íñiguez, Carmen; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Abrutzky, Rosana; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Entezari, Alireza; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; de’Donato, Francesca; Alahmad, Barrak; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Overcenco, Ala; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Rao, Shilpa; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Li, Shanshan; Colistro, Valentina; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dung, Do Van; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio
    Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
    2021-09-24Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
    Publication . Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Goodman, Patrick; Huber, Veronika; Forsberg, Bertil; Kyselý, Jan; Sera, Francesco; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Goodman, Patrick; Huber, Veronika; Forsberg, Bertil; Kyselý, Jan; Sera, Francesco; Bell, Michelle; Simon Hales; Honda, Yasushi; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Tobias, Aurelio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Abrutzky, Rosana; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Roye, Dominic; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Roradeh, Hematollah; Raz, Raanan; Michelozzi, Paola; de'Donato, Francesca; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kim, Yoonhee; Alahmad, Barrak; Cauchy, John Paul; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix; Valencia, César De la Cruz; Overcenco, Ala; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Rao, Shilpa; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; Chua, Paul Lester Carlos; Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira da; Nunes, Baltazar; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Mistry, Malcolm; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Íñiguez, Carmen; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Colistro, Valentina; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan
    Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. Findings: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. Interpretation: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.
    2024-02-06Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
    Publication . Zhao, Qi; Guo, Yuming; Ye, Tingting; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Dung, Do Van; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de'Donato, Francesca; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline; Valdés Ortega, Nicolás; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Matus Correa, Patricia; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Rao, Shilpa; Fratianni, Simona; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Bell, Michelle L.; Li, Shanshan
    Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.
    2021-07Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries
    Publication . Stafoggia, Massimo; Michelozzi, Paola; Schneider, Alexandra; Armstrong, Ben; Scortichini, Matteo; Rai, Masna; Achilleos, Souzana; Alahmad, Barrak; Analitis, Antonis; Åström, Christofer; Bell, Michelle L.; Calleja, Neville; Krage Carlsen, Hanne; Carrasco, Gabriel; Paul Cauchi, John; DSZS Coelho, Micheline; Correa, Patricia M.; Diaz, Magali H.; Entezari, Alireza; Forsberg, Bertil; Garland, Rebecca M.; Leon Guo, Yue; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Holobaca, Iulian H.; Íñiguez, Carmen; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Kan, Haidong; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kim, Ho; Kyselý, Jan; Lavigne, Eric; Lee, Whanhee; Li, Shanshan; Maasikmets, Marek; Madureira, Joana; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Nunes, Baltazar; Orru, Hans; V Ortega, Nicolás; Osorio, Samuel; Palomares, Alfonso D.L.; Pan, Shih-Chun; Pascal, Mathilde; Ragettli, Martina S; Rao, Shilpa; Raz, Raanan; Roye, Dominic; Ryti, Niilo; HN Saldiva, Paulo; Samoli, Evangelia; Schwartz, Joel; Scovronick, Noah; Sera, Francesco; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; DLC Valencia, César; Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Urban, Aleš; Gasparrini, Antonio; Breitner, Susanne; de' Donato, Francesca K.
    Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 μg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 μg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.
    2023-10-10Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
    Publication . Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Abrutzky, Rosana; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Kan, Haidong; Garcia, Samuel Osorio; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, João Paulo; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Do Van, Dung; Mayvaneh, Fetemeh; Overcenco, Ala; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming
    An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
    2019-10Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis
    Publication . He, Cheng; Breitner-Busch, Susanne; Huber, Veronika; Chen, Kai; Zhang, Siqi; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell, Michelle; Kan, Haidong; Royé, Dominic; Armstrong, Ben; Schwartz, Joel; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Honda, Yasushi; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo; Kyselý, Jan; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; de’Donato, Francesca; Michelozzi, Paola; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Staglior; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Orru,Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Kim, Yoonhee; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix; Overcenco, Ala; Klompmaker, Jochem; Rao, Shilpa; Palomares, Alfonso Diz-Lois; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana; Joana Madureira; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Osorio, Samuel; Li, Shanshan; Zanobetti, Antonella; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Schneider. Alexandra
    Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. Main outcome measure: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. Results: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. Conclusion: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.
    2024-10-09Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality
    Publication . Guo, Qiang; Mistry, Malcolm N.; Zhou, Xudong; Zhao, Gang; Kino, Kanon; Wen, Bo; Yoshimura, Kei; Satoh, Yusuke; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Kim, Yoonhee; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Armstrong, Ben; Urban, Aleš; Katsouyanni, Klea; Masselot, Pierre; Tong, Shilu; Sera, Francesco; Huber, Veronika; Bell, Michelle L.; Kyselý, Jan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Hashizume, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan; Abrutzky, Rosana; Guo, Yuming; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Correa, Patricia Matus; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Roye, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Orru, Hans; Jaakkola, Jouni J K.; Ryti, Niilo; Pascal, Mathilde; Schneider, Alexandra; Analitis, Antonis; Entezari, Alireza; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; de'Donato, Francesca; Michelozzi, Paola; Alahmad, Barrak; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; Overcenco, Ala; Ameling, Caroline; Houthuijs, Danny; Rao, Shilpa; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; Madureira, Joana; Silva, Susana; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Scovronick, Noah; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Ragettli, Martina S.; Pan, Shih-Chun; Guo, Yue Leon; Li, Shanshan; Schneider, Rochelle; Colistro, Valentina; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Van Dung, Do; Ngoc Dang, Tran; Honda, Yasushi
    The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (Tair) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative Tair-relative humidity correlation (CT-RH). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive CT-RH, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to Tair. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with Tair in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems.
    2024-07Artigo científico Acesso aberto Ver mais