Browsing by Author "Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio"
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- Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 CountriesPublication . Alahmad, Barrak; Khraishah, Haitham; Royé, Dominic; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Guo, Yuming; Papatheodorou, Stefania I.; Achilleos, Souzana; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Pan, Shih-Chun; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Colistro, Valentina; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do-Van; De' Donato, Francesca K.; Entezari, Alireza; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Indermitte, Ene; Íñiguez, Carmen; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Kim, Ho; Lavigne, Eric; Lee, Whanhee; Li, Shanshan; Madureira, Joana; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Orru, Hans; Overcenco, Ala Vladimir; Ragettli, Martina S.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Scovronick, Noah; Seposo, Xerxes; Sera, Francesco; Silva, Susana; Stafoggia, Massimo; Tobias, Aurelio; Garshick, Eric; Bernstein, Aaron S.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Koutrakis, PetrosBackground: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. Methods: We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. Results: The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1–2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9–9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4–2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2–13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. Conclusions: Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day—and especially under a changing climate.
- Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global ScalePublication . Tobías, Aurelio; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Sera, Francesco; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Kim, Yoonhee; Roye, Dominic; Chung, Yeonseung; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Íñiguez, Carmen; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Abrutzky, Rosana; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Entezari, Alireza; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; de’Donato, Francesca; Alahmad, Barrak; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Overcenco, Ala; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Rao, Shilpa; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Li, Shanshan; Colistro, Valentina; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dung, Do Van; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, AntonioBackground: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
- Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling studyPublication . Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Goodman, Patrick; Huber, Veronika; Forsberg, Bertil; Kyselý, Jan; Sera, Francesco; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Zhao, Qi; Ryti, Niilo; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Pascal, Mathilde; Urban, Aleš; Zeka, Ariana; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Goodman, Patrick; Huber, Veronika; Forsberg, Bertil; Kyselý, Jan; Sera, Francesco; Bell, Michelle; Simon Hales; Honda, Yasushi; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Tobias, Aurelio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Abrutzky, Rosana; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Roye, Dominic; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Roradeh, Hematollah; Raz, Raanan; Michelozzi, Paola; de'Donato, Francesca; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kim, Yoonhee; Alahmad, Barrak; Cauchy, John Paul; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix; Valencia, César De la Cruz; Overcenco, Ala; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Rao, Shilpa; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; Chua, Paul Lester Carlos; Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira da; Nunes, Baltazar; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Mistry, Malcolm; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Íñiguez, Carmen; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Colistro, Valentina; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Guo, Yuming; Li, ShanshanBackground: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. Findings: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. Interpretation: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.
- Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variabilityPublication . Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Abrutzky, Rosana; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Kan, Haidong; Garcia, Samuel Osorio; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, João Paulo; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Do Van, Dung; Mayvaneh, Fetemeh; Overcenco, Ala; Li, Shanshan; Guo, YumingAn increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
- Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperaturePublication . Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Forsberg, Bertil; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; Cruz Valencia, César De la; Houthuijs, Danny; Dung, Do Van; Roye, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de'Donato, Francesca; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Correa, Patricia Matus; Goodman, Patrick; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Raz, Raanan; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Pan, Shih-Chun; Rao, Shilpa; Tong, Shilu; Achilleos, Souzana; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Yoonhee; Guo, Yue Leon; Li, Shanshan; Guo, YumingAssessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
- Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015Publication . Yang, Daewon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tobías, Aurelio; Honda, Yasushi; Roye, Dominic; Oh, Jaemin; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Kim, Yoonhee; Abrutzky, Rosana; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni; Ryti, Niilo; Pascal, Mathilde; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Entezari, Alireza; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; de'Donato, Francesca; Alahmad, Barrak; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; la Cruz Valencia, César De; Overcenco, Ala; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Rao, Shilpa; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Pan, Shih Chun; Li, Shanshan; Sera, Francesco; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Chung, YeonseungBackground: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986-2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = -0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = -3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = -2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.