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Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

2024-02-27Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorChen, Kai
dc.contributor.authorde Schrijver, Evan
dc.contributor.authorSivaraj, Sidharth
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Leiwen
dc.contributor.authorRoye, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm N
dc.contributor.authorCvijanovic, Ivana
dc.contributor.authorMCC Collaborative Research Network
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana M
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-17T14:12:50Z
dc.date.available2025-02-17T14:12:50Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-27
dc.descriptionMCC Collaborative Research Network: Susana Pereira da Silva (Departamento de Epidemiologia, INSA)
dc.description.abstractOlder adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.por
dc.description.abstractThis study reveals that population aging intensifies heat- and cold-related deaths, more so than climate change, in 50 countries. At 1.53 °C global warming, aging contributes to rising heat-related deaths, offsetting declines in cold related death.por
dc.description.sponsorshipWe acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. K.C. was supported by the Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant. A.G., A.S., and S.R. were supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion grant (820655). A.G. was also supported by the Medical Research Council UK grant (MR/V034162/1). J.M. received funding from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia Grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). A.T. was supported by the MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 grant (CEX2018-000794-S). A.U. and J.K. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S). F.S. was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project 2023-2027 ReDS ‘Rethinking Data Science’ - Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications - University of Florence. MNM. was supported by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA-IF-2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. A.V.C. acknowledges the support of the Swiss National Foundation (TMSGI3_211626). V.H. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No.: 101032087).
dc.identifier.citationNat Commun . 2024 Feb 27;15(1):1796. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.pmid38413648
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10352
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherNature Research
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relationEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
dc.relationMortality Risk Attributable to Thermal Discomfort Indicators with Implications of Climate Change
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45901-z
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectRisk Factors
dc.subjectEnvironmental Impact
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectCold Temperature
dc.subjectGlobal Warming
dc.subjectHot Temperature
dc.subjectAvaliação do Risco
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleImpact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levelspor
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardTitleEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
oaire.awardTitleMortality Risk Attributable to Thermal Discomfort Indicators with Implications of Climate Change
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F115112%2F2016/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101022870/EU
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.startPage1796
oaire.citation.titleNature Communications
oaire.citation.volume15
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication0c38fa63-8890-47d4-b3d3-1aa47f53b966
relation.isProjectOfPublication50067286-ec07-41d4-8999-d32acdae398a
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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