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Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Non-Pharmacological Strategies to Control the COVID-19 Epidemic in Portugal

2021-05-12Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorCaetano, Constantino
dc.contributor.authorMorgado, Maria Luísa
dc.contributor.authorPatrício, Paula
dc.contributor.authorPereira, João E.
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-12T10:43:08Z
dc.date.available2021-05-12T10:43:08Z
dc.date.issued2021-05-12
dc.descriptionThis article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Biology: Developments in Epidemic and Endemic Modelspt_PT
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we present an age-structured SEIR model that uses contact patterns to reflect the physical distance measures implemented in Portugal to control the COVID-19 pandemic. By using these matrices and proper estimates for the parameters in the model, we were able to ascertain the impact of mitigation strategies employed in the past. Results show that the March 2020 lockdown had an impact on disease transmission, bringing the effective reproduction number (R(t)) below 1. We estimate that there was an increase in the transmission after the initial lift of the measures on 6 May 2020 that resulted in a second wave that was curbed by the October and November measures. December 2020 saw an increase in the transmission reaching an R(t) = 1.45 in early January 2021. Simulations indicate that the lockdown imposed on the 15 January 2021 might reduce the intensive care unit (ICU) demand to below 200 cases in early April if it lasts at least 2 months. As it stands, the model was capable of projecting the number of individuals in each infection phase for each age group and moment in time.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors acknowledge financial support from the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia—FCT through project 692 2ª edição Research 4 covid, project name Projeção do Impacte das medidas Não-farmacológicas de Controlo e mitigação da epidemia de COVID-19 em Tempo ReaL (COVID-19 in-CTRL). The first author also acknowledges FCT within the PhD grants “DOCTORATES 4 COVID-19”, number 2020.10172.BD. The second author also acknowledges FCT within projects UIDB/04621/2020 and UIDP/04621/2020. The third author also acknowledges FCT within the Strategic Project UIDB/00297/2020 (Centro de Matemática e Aplicações, FCT NOVA).pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationMathematics. 2021 May 12;9(10):1084. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9101084pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/math9101084pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2227-7390
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/7736
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherMDPIpt_PT
dc.relationCOVID-19 in-CTRLpt_PT
dc.relationCenter for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/10/1084/htmpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectEpidemiological Modelspt_PT
dc.subjectSEIR Type Compartmental Modelpt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19pt_PT
dc.subjectMathematical Modellingpt_PT
dc.subjectNon-Pharmacological Strategiespt_PT
dc.subjectInfecções Respiratóriaspt_PT
dc.subjectInvestigação em Políticas de Saúde
dc.subjectPortugal
dc.titleMathematical Modelling of the Impact of Non-Pharmacological Strategies to Control the COVID-19 Epidemic in Portugalpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleCenter for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04621%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.issue9pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1084pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleMathematicspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume10pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameCaetano
person.familyNameNunes
person.givenNameConstantino
person.givenNameBaltazar
person.identifier.ciencia-id5415-90E4-3D0E
person.identifier.ciencia-idAB11-AD48-A8DF
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6569-7772
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6230-7209
person.identifier.scopus-author-id9133723200
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com a política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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