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Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015

2024-10-30Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorYang, Daewon
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorTobías, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorRoye, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorOh, Jaemin
dc.contributor.authorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.contributor.authorKim, Yoonhee
dc.contributor.authorAbrutzky, Rosana
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
dc.contributor.authorSaldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorCorrea, Patricia Matus
dc.contributor.authorOrtega, Nicolás Valdés
dc.contributor.authorOsorio, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorOrru, Hans
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, Ene
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorKatsouyanni, Klea
dc.contributor.authorAnalitis, Antonis
dc.contributor.authorEntezari, Alireza
dc.contributor.authorMayvaneh, Fatemeh
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.contributor.authorde'Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorAlahmad, Barrak
dc.contributor.authorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.contributor.authorla Cruz Valencia, César De
dc.contributor.authorOvercenco, Ala
dc.contributor.authorHouthuijs, Danny
dc.contributor.authorAmeling, Caroline
dc.contributor.authorRao, Shilpa
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorHolo-Bâc, Iulian Horia
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah
dc.contributor.authorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue-Liang Leon
dc.contributor.authorPan, Shih Chun
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorChung, Yeonseung
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-18T14:55:51Z
dc.date.available2025-02-18T14:55:51Z
dc.date.issued2024-10-30
dc.description.abstractBackground: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986-2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = -0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = -3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = -2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.eng
dc.description.abstractWhat this study adds: This study examines the geographical heterogeneity in the temporal changes in minimum mortality temperature (MMT) across 34 countries (699 communities) over the 30-year period spanning 1986–2015. This study attempts to investigate both the pooled evidence and the heterogeneity in the temporal change in MMT on a global scale. Our findings suggest an overall increase in MMT globally over the 30 years, with certain country- or region-specific trends displaying both upward and downward movements without discernible patterns. Moreover, the results indicate that the temporal change in MMT is not fully explained by the warming temperatures over time.por
dc.description.sponsorshipD.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016).
dc.identifier.citationEnviron Epidemiol . 2024 Sep 30;8(5):e334. doi: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334. eCollection 2024 Oct.
dc.identifier.doi10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334
dc.identifier.issn2474-7882
dc.identifier.pmid39555185
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10358
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherLippincott, Williams & Wilkins
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relationEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://journals.lww.com/environepidem/fulltext/2024/10000/temporal_change_in_minimum_mortality_temperature.12.aspx
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectHeterogeneity
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectHuman Adaptation
dc.subjectMinimum Mortality Temperature
dc.subjectTemporal Change
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.subjectAvaliação do Risco
dc.titleTemporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015por
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardTitleEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F115112%2F2016/PT
oaire.citation.issue5
oaire.citation.startPagee334
oaire.citation.titleEnvironmental Epidemiology
oaire.citation.volume8
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication0c38fa63-8890-47d4-b3d3-1aa47f53b966
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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