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Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study

2023-08Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorXu, Rongbin
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorMolina, Tomás
dc.contributor.authorMasselot, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorRoyé, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorSheng Ng, Chris Fook
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.contributor.authorValencia, César De la Cruz
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue Leon
dc.contributor.authorPan, Shih-Chun
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.contributor.authorDung, Do Van
dc.contributor.authorGeiger, Tobias
dc.contributor.authorOtto, Christian
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Amanda
dc.contributor.authorHales, Simon
dc.contributor.authorPei Yu
dc.contributor.authorYang, Zhengyu
dc.contributor.authorRitchie, Elizabeth A.
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-14T15:39:41Z
dc.date.available2025-02-14T15:39:41Z
dc.date.issued2023-08
dc.description.abstractBackground: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. Methods: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5° × 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects. Findings: Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions. Interpretation: Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581). WH and RX were supported by China Scholarship Council funds (numbers 202006380055 and 201806010405). YG was supported by a Career Development Fellowship (GNT1163693) and Leader Fellowship (GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2009866). TV received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the research project QUIDIC (01LP1907A), and through the CHIPS project, part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (Sweden), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (German Aerospace Center)/Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (German Ministry of Education and Research) (grant number 01LS1904A), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Spanish State Research Agency), and Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Agency for Research) with co-funding by the EU (grant number 776608). JM was supported by a fellowship of Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). AG was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant ID MR/R013349/1), the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant ID NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655). AT was supported by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S).
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health . 2023 Aug;7(8):e694-e705. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00143-2
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00143-2
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.pmid37558350
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10348
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relationAssessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation
dc.relationEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623001432?via%3Dihub
dc.relation.ispartofThe Lancet Planetary Health
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectCyclones
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleGlobal short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardTitleAssessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation
oaire.awardTitleEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776608/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F115112%2F2016/PT
oaire.citation.endPagee705
oaire.citation.issue8
oaire.citation.startPagee694
oaire.citation.titleThe Lancet Planetary Health
oaire.citation.volume7
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication164776a3-e5f1-4beb-b266-6e3357195a03
relation.isProjectOfPublication0c38fa63-8890-47d4-b3d3-1aa47f53b966
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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