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Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study

2020-11Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorKim, Yoonhee
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorPark, Rokjin
dc.contributor.authorMichelle Choi, Hayon
dc.contributor.authorPrifti, Kristi
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorAbrutzky, Rosana
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorde Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline
dc.contributor.authorNascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorOrru, Hans
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, Ene
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo R.I.
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorHurtado Diaz, Magali
dc.contributor.authorCésar Cruz, Julio
dc.contributor.authorOvercenco, Ala
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah
dc.contributor.authorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue-Liang Leon
dc.contributor.authorChen, Bing-Yu
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-03T16:03:43Z
dc.date.available2021-03-03T16:03:43Z
dc.date.issued2020-11
dc.description.abstractBackground: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. Methods: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. Findings: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99. Interpretation: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipKorea Ministry of Environment.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health. 2020 Nov;4(11):e512-e521. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30222-9pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30222-9pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/7296
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30222-9/fulltextpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectExcess Mortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectDiurnal Temperature Rangept_PT
dc.subjectClimate Changept_PT
dc.subjectProjectionspt_PT
dc.subjectAvaliação do Riscopt_PT
dc.titleProjections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling studypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPagee521pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue11pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPagee512pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleThe Lancet Planetary Healthpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume4pt_PT
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT

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