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The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

2016-06-18Artigo científico Acesso restrito
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dc.contributor.authorAntunes, Liliana
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Susana Pereira
dc.contributor.authorMarques, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorAntunes, Sílvia
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-30T10:27:11Z
dc.date.available2017-07-01T00:30:11Z
dc.date.issued2016-06-18
dc.description.abstractIt is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1–2-day delay, reaching maximumincreased risk of death after 6–7 days and lasting up to 20–28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was financially supported by national funds from the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT)-EXPL/ DTP-SAP/1373/2013pt_PT
dc.identifier.citationInt J Biometeorol. 2016. Epub 2016 Jun 18. doi:10.1007/s00484-016-1196-xpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00484-016-1196-xpt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0020-7128
dc.identifier.issn1432-1254
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/3862
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringer Verlag (Germany)/ International Society of Biometeorologypt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-016-1196-xpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://rdcu.be/nlt0
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectMinimum Temperaturept_PT
dc.subjectMortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectCold Effectpt_PT
dc.subjectDistributed Lag Non-linear Modelspt_PT
dc.subjectRelative Riskpt_PT
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapt_PT
dc.subjectFRIESApt_PT
dc.subjectPortopt_PT
dc.subjectLisboa
dc.subjectPortugal
dc.titleThe effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese citiespt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/EXPL%2FDTP-SAP%2F1373%2F2013/PT
oaire.citation.endPage9pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleInternational Journal of Biometeorologypt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsembargoedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isProjectOfPublicationd26b94bb-1ead-4008-aa15-1a380ffa8159
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryd26b94bb-1ead-4008-aa15-1a380ffa8159

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