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Viral genetics and transmission dynamics in the second wave of mpox outbreak in Portugal and forecasting public health scenarios

2024-12Research article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorCordeiro, Rita
dc.contributor.authorCaetano, Constantino P.
dc.contributor.authorSobral, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, Rita
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Luís
dc.contributor.authorPelerito, Ana
dc.contributor.authorde Carvalho, Isabel Lopes
dc.contributor.authorNamorado, Sónia
dc.contributor.authorLoyens, Dinis B.
dc.contributor.authorMexia, Ricardo
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Cândida
dc.contributor.authorNeves, José Miguel
dc.contributor.authorJoão, Ana Luísa
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorDuque, Luís Miguel
dc.contributor.authorCorreia, Inês
dc.contributor.authorBaptista, Teresa
dc.contributor.authorBrazão, Cláudia
dc.contributor.authorSousa, Diogo
dc.contributor.authorFilipe, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorAlpalhão, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorMaltez, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorPóvoas, Diana
dc.contributor.authorPinto, Raquel
dc.contributor.authorCaria, João
dc.contributor.authorPatrocínio de Jesus, Rita
dc.contributor.authorPacheco, Patrícia
dc.contributor.authorPeruzzu, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorMéndez, Josefina
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, Luís
dc.contributor.authorMansinho, Kamal
dc.contributor.authorAlves, João Vaz
dc.contributor.authorVasconcelos, Joana
dc.contributor.authorDomingos, João
dc.contributor.authorCasanova, Sara
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Frederico
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Maria João
dc.contributor.authorSalvador, Mafalda Brito
dc.contributor.authorGuimarães, Mafalda Andresen
dc.contributor.authorMartins, Sueila
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Marvin Silva
dc.contributor.authorSantos, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorVieira, Luís
dc.contributor.authorNúncio, Maria Sofia
dc.contributor.authorBorges, Vítor
dc.contributor.authorGomes, João Paulo
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-12T13:00:01Z
dc.date.available2025-03-12T13:00:01Z
dc.date.issued2024-12
dc.description.abstractIn 2023, a second wave of the global mpox epidemic, which is mainly affecting men who have sex with men (MSM), was observed in some countries. Herein, we benefited from a large viral sequence sampling (76/121; 63%) and vast epidemiological data to characterise the re-emergence and circulation of the (MPXV) in Portugal during 2023. We also modelled transmission and forecasted public health scenarios through a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. Our results suggest that the 2023 mpox wave in Portugal resulted from limited introduction(s) of MPXV belonging to C.1.1 sublineage, hypothetically from Asia, followed by sustained viral transmission and potential exportation to other countries. We estimated that the contribution of the MSM high sexual activity group to mpox transmission was 120 (95% CrI: 30-3553) times higher than that of the low sexual activity group. However, among the high sexual activity group, vaccinated individuals likely contributed approximately eight times less [0.123 (95% CrI: 0.068-0.208)] than the unvaccinated ones. Vaccination was also linked to potential reduced disease severity, with a Mpox Severity Score of 6.0 in the vaccinated group compared to 7.0 in unvaccinated individuals. Scenario analysis indicated that transmission is highly sensitive to sexual behaviour, projecting that a slight increase in the MSM sub-population with high sexual activity can trigger new mpox waves. This study strongly supports that continued vaccination, targeted awareness among risk groups and routine genomic epidemiology is needed to anticipate and respond to novel MPXV threats (e.g. global dissemination of clade I viruses).
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was co-funded through the DURABLE “Research Network against Epidemics” project. The European Commission Union has co-funded the DURABLE project under the EU4Health Programme (EU4H), Project no. 101102733. The study was also co-funded by the project GENEO “Sustainable use and integration of enhanced infrastructure into routine genome-based surveillance and outbreak investigation activities in Portugal” (https://www.insa.min-saude.pt/category/projectos/geneo/) on behalf of EU4H programme (Project N° 101113460). Constantino Caetano acknowledges the “Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT)” within the PhD grants “DOCTORATES 4 COVID”, grant number 2020.10172.BD.
dc.identifier.citationEmerg Microbes Infect. 2024 Dec;13(1):2412635. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2024.2412635. Epub 2024 Oct 11
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/22221751.2024.2412635
dc.identifier.issn2222-1751
dc.identifier.pmid39360827
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10436
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherTaylor and Francis Group
dc.relation101102733
dc.relation101113460
dc.relation2020.10172.BD
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2024.2412635
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectMonkeypox Virus
dc.subjectMen who have Sex with Men (MSM)
dc.subjectHigh Sexual Activity
dc.subjectSecond Wave
dc.subjectVaccination
dc.subjectEpidemiology
dc.subjectPublic Health
dc.subjectPortugal
dc.titleViral genetics and transmission dynamics in the second wave of mpox outbreak in Portugal and forecasting public health scenariospor
dc.typeresearch article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.startPage2412635
oaire.citation.titleEmerging Microbes & Infections
oaire.citation.volume13
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85

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