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Undetected circulation of monkeypox virus in Portugal: Evidence for a 50-day gap before first detection

2025-12-15Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.fosCiências Médicas
datacite.subject.sdg03:Saúde de Qualidade
dc.contributor.authorCordeiro, Rita
dc.contributor.authorBatista, Fernando da Conceição
dc.contributor.authorPelerito, Ana
dc.contributor.authorDe carvalho, Isabel
dc.contributor.authorLopo, Sílvia
dc.contributor.authorNeves, Raquel
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Raquel
dc.contributor.authorPalminha, Paula
dc.contributor.authorBorrego, Maria José
dc.contributor.authorNuncio, MS
dc.contributor.authorGomes, João Paulo
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-10T10:17:53Z
dc.date.available2026-02-10T10:17:53Z
dc.date.issued2025-12-15
dc.description.abstractAs mpox continues to spread globally, proactive monitoring and preparedness are crucial to minimize impact and enhance response strategies. Using a mathematical model combining a negative binomial distribution with Richards' logistic curve, we reconstructed the hidden phase of mpox transmission in Portugal, offering insights into the timing and dynamics of the initial outbreak. The analysis of 950 PCR-positive and 986 negative cases suggested that symptom onset occurred between March 24 and April 2, 2022, with March 27 identified as the most probable date. This study delineates the likely period of silent circulation of MPXV in Portugal, providing a clearer understanding of early outbreak dynamics and surveillance performance. Possible imperfections in early diagnostic testing and limited awareness of mpox may have contributed to delayed recognition of the outbreak. By demonstrating how retrospective mathematical modelling can estimate undetected transmission periods, our findings highlight the value of such approaches in epidemic reconstruction and underscore the importance of strengthening early surveillance systems to detect undiagnosed transmission of mpox in non-endemic countries.eng
dc.description.abstractHighlights: Mpox circulated in Portugal ∼50 days before the first official case detection. Symptom onset estimated at March 27, 2022, via retrospective modelling. Mathematical modelling revealed hidden phases of mpox community transmission. Incomplete onset data was addressed using statistical imputation methods. Findings emphasize need for stronger early surveillance in non-endemic regions.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors acknowledge Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) for its financial support via the project CDRSP Funding (DOI: 10.54499/UID/04044/2025) and ARISE funding (DOI: 10.54499/LA/P/0112/2020)
dc.identifier.citationGlob Epidemiol. 2025 Dec 15:11:100238. doi: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100238. eCollection 2026 Jun
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100238
dc.identifier.issn2590-1133
dc.identifier.pmid41551841
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10877
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationUID/04044/2025
dc.relationLA/P/0112/2020
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590113325000562?via%3Dihub
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectMpox
dc.subjectFirst Case
dc.subjectMathematical Modelling
dc.subjectSurveillance
dc.subjectSymptom Onse
dc.subjectInfecções Sistémicas e Zoonoses
dc.subjectPortugal
dc.titleUndetected circulation of monkeypox virus in Portugal: Evidence for a 50-day gap before first detectioneng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPage100238
oaire.citation.titleGlobal Epidemiology
oaire.citation.volume11
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameCordeiro
person.familyNamePelerito
person.familyNameLopes de Carvalho
person.familyNameBorrego
person.familyNameNúncio
person.familyNameGomes
person.givenNameRita
person.givenNameAna
person.givenNameIsabel
person.givenNameMaria José
person.givenNameMaria Sofia
person.givenNameJoão Paulo
person.identifierZ-1027-2018
person.identifier.ciencia-idB518-A367-B8B7
person.identifier.ciencia-id2314-0ED4-2424
person.identifier.ciencia-id5E12-F1E2-CAE3
person.identifier.ciencia-id4812-0368-4249
person.identifier.ciencia-idC715-3703-B77D
person.identifier.ciencia-id6212-831B-E115
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5321-3657
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4770-9079
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-4693-3952
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8604-8800
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5182-6150
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2697-2399
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