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Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic: a comparative analysis of 12 European countries

2011-06Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorFlasche, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorHens, Niel
dc.contributor.authorBoëlle, Pierre-Yves
dc.contributor.authorMossong, Joël
dc.contributor.authorvan Ballegooijen, W. Marijn
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorRizzo, Caterina
dc.contributor.authorPopovici, Florin
dc.contributor.authorSanta-Olalla, Patricia
dc.contributor.authorHrubá, Frantiska
dc.contributor.authorParmakova, Kremena
dc.contributor.authorBaguelin, Marc
dc.contributor.authorvan Hoek, Albert Jan
dc.contributor.authorDesenclos, Jean-Claude
dc.contributor.authorBernillon, Pascale
dc.contributor.authorCámara, Amparro Larrauri
dc.contributor.authorWallinga, Jacco
dc.contributor.authorAsikainen, Tommi
dc.contributor.authorWhite, Peter J.
dc.contributor.authorEdmunds, W. John
dc.date.accessioned2012-01-06T18:26:49Z
dc.date.available2012-01-06T18:26:49Z
dc.date.issued2011-06
dc.description.abstractFollowing the emergence of a novel strain of influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico and the United States in April 2009, its epidemiology in Europe during the summer was limited to sporadic and localised outbreaks. Only the United Kingdom experienced widespread transmission declining with school holidays in late July. Using statistical modelling where applicable we explored the following causes that could explain this surprising difference in transmission dynamics: extinction by chance, differences in the susceptibility profile, age distribution of the imported cases, differences in contact patterns, mitigation strategies, school holidays and weather patterns. No single factor was able to explain the differences sufficiently. Hence an additive mixed model was used to model the country-specific weekly estimates of the effective reproductive number using the extinction probability, school holidays and weather patterns as explanatory variables. The average extinction probability, its trend and the trend in absolute humidity were found to be significantly negatively correlated with the effective reproduction number - although they could only explain about 3% of the variability in the model. By comparing the initial epidemiology of influenza A (H1N1) across different European countries, our analysis was able to uncover a possible role for the timing of importations (extinction probability), mixing patterns and the absolute humidity as underlying factors. However, much uncertainty remains. With better information on the role of these epidemiological factors, the control of influenza could be improved.por
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Medical Research Council for Centre funding;European PCRD 7 (Flumodcont); Institute for the Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT), project number 060081 and by the IAP research network nr P6/03 of the Belgian Government (Belgian Science Policy)por
dc.identifier.citationEpidemics. 2011 Jun;3(2):125-33. Epub 2011 Apr 13por
dc.identifier.issn1755-4365
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.005
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/356
dc.language.isoengpor
dc.peerreviewedyespor
dc.publisherElsevierpor
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436511000235por
dc.subjectPandemicspor
dc.subjectEuropepor
dc.subjectSwine-origin influenza A H1N1 viruspor
dc.subjectSeasonalitypor
dc.subjectStatistical modelspor
dc.subjectAbsolute humiditypor
dc.subjectEstados de Saúde e de Doençapor
dc.subjectDoenças Evitáveis pela Vacinaçãopor
dc.subjectEpidemiologiapor
dc.titleDifferent transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic: a comparative analysis of 12 European countriespor
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/201601
oaire.citation.endPage133por
oaire.citation.startPage125por
oaire.citation.titleEpidemicspor
oaire.fundingStreamFP7
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccesspor
rcaap.typearticlepor
relation.isProjectOfPublication695775ec-5aa3-4eda-ab95-6c1821724c6c
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery695775ec-5aa3-4eda-ab95-6c1821724c6c

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