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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

2019-10Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorLee, Jae Young
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorAbrutzky, Rosana
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
dc.contributor.authorSaldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
dc.contributor.authorCorrea, Patricia Matus
dc.contributor.authorOrtega, Nicolas Valdes
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Samuel Osorio
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorOrru, Hans
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, Ene
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo R.I.
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick G.
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.contributor.authorScortichini, Matteo
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorHurtado, Magali
dc.contributor.authorCruz, Julio
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorTeixeira, João Paulo
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorÅström, Christofer
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue-Liang Leon
dc.contributor.authorChen, Bing-Yu
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.contributor.authorDo Van, Dung
dc.contributor.authorMayvaneh, Fetemeh
dc.contributor.authorOvercenco, Ala
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-29T05:26:05Z
dc.date.available2020-04-29T05:26:05Z
dc.date.issued2019-10
dc.description.abstractAn increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by the Global Research Lab (#K21004000001-10A0500-00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT (Information and Communication Technologies), and Future Planning. JL was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea as NRF-SNSF Researcher Exchange Program (NRF2018K2A9A1A06086694). AG was supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1) and Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1). JK and AU were supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project no. 18-22125S. HO and EI were supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (Grant no IUT34-17). JJKJ and NRIR were supported by the Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland (Grant no 266314 and 310372). MH and YH were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency. AT was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Invitational Fellowships for Research in Japan (S18149).pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationEnviron Int. 2019 Oct;131:105027. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027. Epub 2019 Jul 24pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0160-4120
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/6551
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevier/ Pergamonpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041201930368X?via%3Dihubpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectClimate Changept_PT
dc.subjectMortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectProjectionpt_PT
dc.subjectRegional Variationpt_PT
dc.subjectVulnerabilitypt_PT
dc.subjectGlobal Healthpt_PT
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapt_PT
dc.subjectAvaliação do Impacte em Saúdept_PT
dc.titlePredicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variabilitypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPage105027pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleEnvironment Internationalpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume131pt_PT
rcaap.embargofctDe acordo com política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT

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