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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

2024-02-06Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorGao, Yuan
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Qi
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorGao, Yuan
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Qi
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle
dc.contributor.authorSimon Hales
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorAbrutzky, Rosana
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
dc.contributor.authorSaldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
dc.contributor.authorCorrea, Patricia Matus
dc.contributor.authorOrtega, Nicolás Valdés
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorOsorio, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorRoye, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorOrru, Hans
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, Ene
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorKatsouyanni, Klea
dc.contributor.authorAnalitis, Antonis
dc.contributor.authorCarlsen, Hanne Krage
dc.contributor.authorMayvaneh, Fatemeh
dc.contributor.authorRoradeh, Hematollah
dc.contributor.authorRaz, Raanan
dc.contributor.authorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.contributor.authorde'Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorKim, Yoonhee
dc.contributor.authorAlahmad, Barrak
dc.contributor.authorCauchy, John Paul
dc.contributor.authorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.contributor.authorArellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix
dc.contributor.authorValencia, César De la Cruz
dc.contributor.authorOvercenco, Ala
dc.contributor.authorHouthuijs, Danny
dc.contributor.authorAmeling, Caroline
dc.contributor.authorRao, Shilpa
dc.contributor.authorCarrasco, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authorChua, Paul Lester Carlos
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Susana das Neves Pereira da
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorHolobaca, Iulian-Horia
dc.contributor.authorCvijanovic, Ivana
dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah
dc.contributor.authorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorÅström, Christofer
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue Leon
dc.contributor.authorPan, Shih-Chun
dc.contributor.authorColistro, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.contributor.authorDung, Do Van
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-17T12:45:28Z
dc.date.available2025-02-17T12:45:28Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-06
dc.description.abstractBackground: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. Findings: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. Interpretation: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.por
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076), the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581) and the EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). YGa and WH were supported by the China Scholarship Council (number 202008110182 and number 202006380055). YGu was supported by the Leader Fellowship (number APP2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. QZ was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province in China (grant ZR2021QH318) and the Shandong Excellent Young Scientists Fund Program (Overseas) (grant 2022HWYQ-055). AG was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). JK and AU were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project 22-24920S). VH was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement Number 101032087), and SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number APP2009866).
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health . 2024 Feb;8(2):e108-e116. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00277-2.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00277-2
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.pmid38331527
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10351
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relationATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002772?via%3Dihub
dc.relation.ispartofThe Lancet Planetary Health
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectBurden
dc.subjectThree-stage
dc.subjectPublic Health
dc.subjectEurope
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleGlobal, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardTitleATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101032087/EU
oaire.citation.endPagee116
oaire.citation.issue2
oaire.citation.startPagee108
oaire.citation.titleLancet Planet Health
oaire.citation.volume8
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication92301729-57ae-47a4-bde2-8ed2d8fc20da
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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