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Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

2024-02-06Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorMadaniyazi, Lina
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm N.
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorCvijanovic, Ivana
dc.contributor.authorNg, Chris Fook Sheng
dc.contributor.authorRoye, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authordas Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorMulti-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-08T11:03:07Z
dc.date.available2025-04-08T11:03:07Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-06
dc.description.abstractBackground: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. Findings: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. Interpretation: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.por
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health. 2024 Feb;8(2):e86-e94. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00269-3
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00269-3
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.pmid38331534
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10492
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002693?via%3Dihub
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectMulticountry
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.subjectEstados de Saúde e de Doença
dc.subjectAvaliação do Risco
dc.titleSeasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPagee94
oaire.citation.issue2
oaire.citation.startPagee86
oaire.citation.titleThe Lancet Planetary Health
oaire.citation.volume8
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNamedas Neves Pereira da Silva
person.givenNameSusana
person.identifier.ciencia-idB718-8EF6-EBD8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2524-0548
relation.isAuthorOfPublication49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8

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