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Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature

2025-08-21Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorRoyé, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorTobías, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorde'Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authordas Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorIñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorMCC Collaborative Research Network
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-14T17:04:24Z
dc.date.available2026-01-14T17:04:24Z
dc.date.issued2025-08-21
dc.description.abstractBackground: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited. Objective: This study estimated the association between hot-night excess (the sum of excess heat during the nighttime above a threshold) and duration (the percent of nighttime with a positive excess) based on hourly ambient temperatures and daily mortality in the warm season over multiple locations worldwide. Methods: We fitted time series regression models to mortality in 178 locations across 44 countries using a distributed lag non-linear model over lags of 0-3 days, controlling for daily maximum temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Next, we used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool results and estimated attributable burdens. Results: We found a positive, increasing mortality risk with hot-night excess and duration. Assuming 0 as a reference, the pooled relative risks of death associated with extreme excess and duration, defined as the 90th percentile in each index, were both similar at 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.017; 1.036) and 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.013; 1.040). The overall estimated attributable fractions were also observed to be closely similar at 0.60 % (95 % CI, 0.09; 1.10 %) and 0.62 % (95 % CI, 0.00; 1.23 %), respectively. Discussion: This study provides new evidence that hot nights have a specific contribution to heat-related mortality risk. Modeling thermal characteristics' sub-hourly impact on mortality during the night could improve decision-making for long-term adaptions and preventive public health strategies.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipD.R. and V.H. were supported by a ‘Ram´on y Cajal’ fellowship pro-gram of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (RYC2023-042824-I and RYC2022-036948-I, respectively). FS (Francesco Sera): The European Union – Next Generation EU –National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) – M4C2 Investment 1.4 –Research Programme CN00000013 ‘National Centre for HPC, Big Data and Quantum Computing’ – CUP B83C22002830001. A.M.VC. (Ana M Vicedo): Swiss National Science Foundation (TMSGI3_211626) and from the Mobiliar Cooperative.
dc.identifier.citationEnviron Int. 2025 Sep:203:109719. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719. Epub 2025 Aug 21
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719
dc.identifier.eissn1873-6750
dc.identifier.issn0160-4120
dc.identifier.pmid40882422
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10701
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025004702?via%3Dihub
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectHot Nights
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectAmbient Temperature
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleShort-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperatureeng
dc.typejournal article
dcterms.referenceshttps://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0160412025004702-mmc1.docx
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dcterms.referenceshttps://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0160412025004702-mmc4.docx
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPage109719
oaire.citation.titleEnvironment International
oaire.citation.volume203
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNamedas Neves Pereira da Silva
person.givenNameSusana
person.identifier.ciencia-idB718-8EF6-EBD8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2524-0548
relation.isAuthorOfPublication49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8

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