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Assessing global factors associated with tropical cyclone-related mortality: A population-based longitudinal study

2026-08Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorYang, Zhengyu
dc.contributor.authorOtto, Christian
dc.contributor.authorMengel, Matthias
dc.contributor.authorHales, Simon
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Yiwen
dc.contributor.authorXu, Rongbin
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorHundessa, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorYu, Wenhua
dc.contributor.authorCarlos Chua, Paul Lester
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorZ S Coelho, Micheline S.
dc.contributor.authorXu, Zhihu
dc.contributor.authorYe, Tingting
dc.contributor.authorYu, Pei
dc.contributor.authorWu, Yao
dc.contributor.authorWen, Bo
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Yanming
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorMCC Collaborators
dc.date.accessioned2026-09-29T11:30:07Z
dc.date.available2026-09-29T11:30:07Z
dc.date.issued2026-08
dc.descriptionMCC collaborators: Dominic Roye, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Yue Leon Guo, Shih-Chun Pan, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yasushi Honda, Veronika Huber, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Aleš Urban, Hanne Krage Carlsen, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano, Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Joana Madureira, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Antonella Zanobetti, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Mathilde Pascal.
dc.description.abstractBackground: The underlying factors associated with the substantial global tropical cyclone (TC)-related mortality burden, characterized by its highly variable spatiotemporal patterns, remain unclear. We aimed to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. Methods: We collected mortality records from 2034 locations in 68 countries/territories across five continents (2000-2019) to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. Bayesian ensemble models were applied to estimate the associated mortality for each TC event in each location. A random forest regression (RFR) model was employed to assess the relative statistical importance of TC and location characteristics, as well as their interactions, regarding the TC-related mortality. Findings: For TC physical characteristics, the TC-associated cumulative rainfall consistently exhibited stronger influence on mortality than TC-induced surge-driven flood depth or maximum sustained windspeed. However, sociodemographic factors, including population traits (e.g., population density, proportion of the population aged ≤ 9 years, percent of the population aged ≥ 65 years) and socioeconomic and infrastructure development (e.g., built-up ratio), showed greater relative importance than the TC physical attributes and accounted for the majority of the explained variations in TC-related mortality. Furthermore, cumulative rainfall interacted strongly with local sociodemographic conditions and was potentially the most important associated factor for disparities in mortality arising from factor interactions. Interpretation: The findings highlight the critical role of sociodemographic factors in explaining the global spatiotemporal variability of TC-related mortality, surpassing the relative importance of TC intensity. TC-related rainfall could be a key associated physical factor of the global mortality burden.eng
dc.description.abstractHighlights: Global population-based longitudinal study of 264 tropical cyclones in 23 countries/territories; Socio-demographic factors outweigh cyclone intensity in explaining mortality burden variations; Cumulative cyclone rainfall could be a stronger associated factor for cyclone mortality than windspeed or storm surge; Findings support shifting from hazard-centric to vulnerability-centric TC risk management.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health & Medical Research Council (APP2000581). W.H., T.Y., Y.W., B.W., and K.J. were supported by China Scholarship Council funds (numbers 202006380055, 201906320051, 202006010044, 202006010043 and 202006240087). Z.Y. and W.Y. were supported by a Monash Graduate Scholarship and a Monash International Tuition Scholarship. Y.Z. was supported by the NHMRC e-Asia Joint Research Program Grant (GNT2000581). R.X. was supported by the VicHealth Postdoctoral Research Fellowships 2022. K.T. was supported by the National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT): E-Asia Joint Research Program: Climate change impact on natural and human systems (N33A650979). P.Y. was supported by Monash Faculty of Medicine Nursing and Health Science (FMNHS) Early Career Postdoctoral Fellowships 2023. S.L. by an Emerging Leader Fellowship (GNT2009866) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; Y.G. by Leader Fellowship (GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
dc.identifier.citationEnviron Int. 2026 Aug:214:110409. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2026.110409. Epub 2026 Jul 9
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.envint.2026.110409
dc.identifier.eissn1873-6750
dc.identifier.issn0160-4120
dc.identifier.pmid42435736
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/11351
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412026003673?via%3Dihub
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectTropical Cyclone
dc.subjectTropical Climate
dc.subjectMulti-Country Multi-City
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleAssessing global factors associated with tropical cyclone-related mortality: A population-based longitudinal studyeng
dc.typejournal article
dcterms.referenceshttps://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0160412026003673-mmc1.docx
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPage110409
oaire.citation.titleEnvironment International
oaire.citation.volume214
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85

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