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Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis

2025-03-05Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.fosCiências Naturais::Matemáticas
datacite.subject.fosCiências Naturais::Ciências Biológicas
datacite.subject.sdg03:Saúde de Qualidade
dc.contributor.authorAngeli, Leonardo
dc.contributor.authorCaetano, Constantino Pereira
dc.contributor.authorFranco, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorColetti, Pietro
dc.contributor.authorFaes, Christel
dc.contributor.authorMolenberghs, Geert
dc.contributor.authorBeutels, Philippe
dc.contributor.authorAbrams, Steven
dc.contributor.authorWillem, Lander
dc.contributor.authorHens, Niel
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-22T16:18:39Z
dc.date.available2026-01-22T16:18:39Z
dc.date.issued2025-03-05
dc.descriptionConstantino Pereira também afiliado ao Departamento de Epidemiologia do Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Portugal. Afiliação não incluída devido a erro na submissão do artigo.
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children’s contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipL.A., P.B., and N.H. acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme – project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688) and the ESCAPE projectArticle https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z Nature Communications | (2025)16:2230 13 (101095619), both funded by the European Union. N.H. further acknowledges support from the VERDI project (101045989), also funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible. L.A. and N.H. acknowledge funding from the Special Research Fund through the Methusalem project BOF08M01 - phase III. C.P.C. acknowledges the funding by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT.BD). L.W. and S.A. acknowledge support from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) (ACCELERATE project G059423N). CoMix data collection in Belgium was made possible through funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688), and with financial support from the National Public Health Institute of Belgium, Sciensano and Janssen Pharmaceuticals. This work reflects only the authors’ view. We extend our gratitude to the research teams at the University of Antwerp, Hasselt University, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, involved in the CoMix study within the EpiPose project, for their invaluable contribution in designing the survey and processing, curating, and collecting the social contact data utilised in our study.
dc.identifier.citationNat Commun. 2025 Mar 5;16(1):2230. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.pmid40044649
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10749
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherNature Research
dc.relationEpidemic intelligence to minimize 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe
dc.relationEfficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation
dc.relationEfficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation
dc.relationEfficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57087-z
dc.relation.ispartofNature Communications
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectNext Generation Matrix
dc.subjectMathematical Model
dc.subjectESCAPE
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleAssessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysiseng
dc.typejournal article
dcterms.referenceshttps://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-025-57087-z/MediaObjects/41467_2025_57087_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleEpidemic intelligence to minimize 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe
oaire.awardTitleEfficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation
oaire.awardTitleEfficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation
oaire.awardTitleEfficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003688/EU
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10746
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10747
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10748
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.startPage2230
oaire.citation.titleNature Communications
oaire.citation.volume16
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamHORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
oaire.fundingStreamHORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
oaire.fundingStreamHORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
relation.isProjectOfPublicationeab59aa5-a380-4497-86ca-69f30209f352
relation.isProjectOfPublication45d5272b-11e6-4096-8520-0efa36da301f
relation.isProjectOfPublication9c8b9735-6ce4-4924-96d2-b0404953f05d
relation.isProjectOfPublication6a486e2d-04fb-4f12-a82d-786c23be3a57
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryeab59aa5-a380-4497-86ca-69f30209f352

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