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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study

2021-07Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorZhao, Qi
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorYe, Tingting
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorOvercenco, Ala
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorEntezari, Alireza
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorAnalitis, Antonis
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorAlahmad, Barrak
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorPan, Shih-Chun
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorAmeling, Caroline
dc.contributor.authorDe la Cruz Valencia, César
dc.contributor.authorÅström, Christofer
dc.contributor.authorHouthuijs, Danny
dc.contributor.authorDung, Do Van
dc.contributor.authorRoyé, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, Ene
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorMayvaneh, Fatemeh
dc.contributor.authorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.contributor.authorde'Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorDi Ruscio, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorCarrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorOrru, Hans
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorHolobaca, Iulian-Horia
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.contributor.authorKatsouyanni, Klea
dc.contributor.authorHurtado Diaz, Magali
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorde Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline
dc.contributor.authorValdés Ortega, Nicolás
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah
dc.contributor.authorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.contributor.authorMatus Correa, Patricia
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorNascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
dc.contributor.authorAbrutzky, Rosana
dc.contributor.authorOsorio, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorRao, Shilpa
dc.contributor.authorFratianni, Simona
dc.contributor.authorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.contributor.authorColistro, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue Leon
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-05T16:11:08Z
dc.date.available2022-07-05T16:11:08Z
dc.date.issued2021-07
dc.descriptionTop 10th climate paper in 2021 for news and social media attention, by Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-climate-papers-most-featured-in-the-media-in-2021/)
dc.description.abstractBackground: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581). QZ was supported by the Program of Qilu Young Scholars of Shandong University, Jinan, China; SL by an Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number APP1109193); YG by career development fellowships of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number APP 1163693); JK and AU by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 20–28560S); NS by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776); S-CP and YLG by the Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan; MOST 109–2621-M-002–021); YH by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF15S11412) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; MdSZSC and PHNS by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600); HO and EI by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT34–17); JM by a fellowship of Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016); AG and FS by the Medical Research Council UK (grant ID MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID NE/R009384/1), and the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); AS, SR, and FdD by the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); and VH by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant ID PCIN-2017–046).pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health. 2021 Jul;5(7):e415-e425. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8064
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltextpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectClimate Changept_PT
dc.subjectNon-optimal Ambient Temperaturespt_PT
dc.subjectMortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectBurden of Mortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectModelling Studypt_PT
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapt_PT
dc.subjectAvaliação do Riscopt_PT
dc.titleGlobal, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling studypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F115112%2F2016/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.citation.endPagee425pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue7pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPagee415pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleThe Lancet Planetary Healthpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume5pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isProjectOfPublication0c38fa63-8890-47d4-b3d3-1aa47f53b966
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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