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Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study

2023-10-04Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorYang, Zhengyu
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorMcKenzie, Joanne E.
dc.contributor.authorXu, Rongbin
dc.contributor.authorYu, Pei
dc.contributor.authorYe, Tingting
dc.contributor.authorWen, Bo
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorMCC Collaborative Research Network
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-21T13:57:08Z
dc.date.available2024-02-21T13:57:08Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-04
dc.descriptionMCC Collaborative Research Network: Rosana Abrutzky, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Patricia Matus Correa, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Aleš Urban, Francesco Sera, Mathilde Pascal, Alexandra Schneider, Veronika Huber, Ariana Zeka, Patrick Goodman, Francesca de'Donato, Paola Michelozzi, Masahiro Hashizume, Yoonhee Kim, César De la Cruz Valencia, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Ala Overcenco, Caroline Ameling, Danny Houthuijs, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Xerxes Seposo, Baltazar Nunes, Iulian-Horia Holobaca, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Aurelio Tobias, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Yasushi Honda, Fiorella Acquaotta, Noah Scovronick, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Martina S Ragettli, Shih-Chun Pan, Yue Leon Guo, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Simon Hales.pt_PT
dc.description.abstractObjective: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. Design: Time series study. Setting: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. Participants: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. Main outcome measures: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. Results: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods. Conclusions: This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.pt_PT
dc.description.abstractWhat is already known on this topic: - Flood events are projected to increase in severity, duration, and frequency as a result of climate change. - Deaths from natural causes might increase after flood events, but current evidence is inconsistent. - Previous studies had limitations in exposure assessments, sample sizes, geographical areas, and study durations. What this study adds: -The findings of this study suggest that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality reach a peak at around 25 days after exposure to floods and last for up to 60 days. - The associations appeared to vary with climate type and were stronger in populations with a low socioeconomic status or a high proportion of older people In communities impacted by floods, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floodspt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding: ZY was supported by a Monash graduate scholarship and a Monash international tuition scholarship. WH, PY, and BW were supported by the China Scholarship Council (202006380055, 201906210065, and 202006010043). YG was supported by a career development fellowship (APP1163693) and a leader fellowship (APP2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). SL was supported by an emerging leader fellowship of the NHMRC (APP2009866). JEM was supported by an NHMRC investigator grant (GNT2009612). AG was supported by a UK Medical Research Council grant (MR/V034162/1). This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076), the Australian NHMRC (GNT2000581), and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID 820655)pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBMJ. 2023 Oct 4:383:e075081. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2023-075081pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/bmj-2023-075081pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0959-8138
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/9132
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherBMJ Publishing Grouppt_PT
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.bmj.com/content/383/bmj-2023-075081pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectFloodspt_PT
dc.subjectTime Series Studypt_PT
dc.subjectMulti-Country Multi-Citypt_PT
dc.subjectClimate Changept_PT
dc.subjectMortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectRespiratory Tract Diseasespt_PT
dc.subjectTime Factorspt_PT
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapt_PT
dc.subjectAvaliação do Impacte em Saúde
dc.titleMortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series studypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.citation.startPagee075081pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleBritish Medical Journalpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume383pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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