Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality

Background: Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature-mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (sustainability). In the second LULCC scenario, sustainability is implemented only in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries (inequality). Methods: Using the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) dataset on mortality from 823 locations in 52 countries and territories, we estimated the temperature-mortality exposure-response functions (ERFs). The LULCC and noLULCC scenarios were implemented in three fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs): Community Earth System Model, Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, and European Consortium Earth System Model. Next, using temperature from the ESMs' simulations and the estimated location-specific ERFs, we assessed the temperature-related impact on mortality for the LULCC and noLULCC scenarios around the mid and end century. Results: Under sustainability, the multimodel mean changes in excess mortality range from -1.1 to +0.6 percentage points by 2050-2059 across all locations and from -1.4 to +0.5 percentage points by 2090-2099. Under inequality, these vary from -0.7 to +0.9 percentage points by 2050-2059 and from -1.3 to +2 percentage points by 2090-2099. Conclusions: While an unequal socioeconomic development and unsustainable land use could increase the burden of heat-related mortality in most regions, globally sustainable land use has the potential to reduce it in some locations. However, the total (cold and heat) impact on mortality is very location specific and strongly depends on the underlying climate change scenario due to nonlinearity in the temperature-mortality relationship.

What this study adds: Numerous environmental epidemiological studies have investigated the temperature-related mortality impact of changes in global greenhouse gas concentrations. However, more scientific evidence is needed on the temperature-related impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on human health. An effective climate policy to achieve the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement requires a substantial transformation in the land sector. Based on recently developed land-use scenarios, this interdisciplinary study contributes to the literature by assessing the temperature-related mortality impacts induced by LULCC using three Earth system models and the most comprehensive exposure–response functions.

Description

Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network: Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Joana Madureira, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Portugal.

Keywords

Deforestation Land-use and land-cover change Sustainable land use Multi-Country Multi-City Mortality Temperature Mortalidade Temperatura Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença