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Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe

2023-03-16Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorMasselot, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm
dc.contributor.authorVanoli, Jacopo
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Rochelle
dc.contributor.authorIungman, Tamara
dc.contributor.authorGarcia-Leon, David
dc.contributor.authorCiscar, Juan-Carlos
dc.contributor.authorFeyen, Luc
dc.contributor.authorOrru, Hans
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorBreitner, Susanne
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorSamoli, Evangelia
dc.contributor.authorStafoggia, Massimo
dc.contributor.authorde’Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorRao, Shilpa
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorNieuwenhuijsen, Mark
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorAchilleos, Souzana
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, Ene
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.contributor.authorRyti, Niilo
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorKatsouyanni, Klea
dc.contributor.authorAnalitis, Antonis
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.contributor.authorHouthuijs, Danny
dc.contributor.authorAmeling, Caroline
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Susana
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorHolobaca, Iulian-Horia
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorÅström, Christofer
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorSurname, First name
dc.contributor.authorZafeiratou, Sofia
dc.contributor.authorVazquez Fernandez, Liliana
dc.contributor.authorMonteiro, Ana
dc.contributor.authorRai, Masna
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Siqi
dc.contributor.authorAunan, Kristin
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-21T14:12:48Z
dc.date.available2024-02-21T14:12:48Z
dc.date.issued2023-03-16
dc.descriptionMCC Collaborative Research Network: Souzana Achilleos (Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus), Jan Kyselý (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic), Ene Indermitte (Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia), Jouni J K Jaakkola and Niilo Ryti (Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, and Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland), Mathilde Pascal (Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France), Antonis Analitis (Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece), Klea Katsouyanni (School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College, London, UK), Patrick Goodman (Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland), Ariana Zeka (Institute for the Environment, Brunel University London, London, UK), Paola Michelozzi (Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy), Danny Houthuijs and Caroline Ameling (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands), Shilpa Rao (Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway), Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva and Joana Madureira (Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal), Iulian-Horia Holobaca (Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania), Aurelio Tobias (Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain), Carmen Íñiguez (Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain), Bertil Forsberg (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden), and Martina S Ragettli (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland).pt_PT
dc.descriptionOnline publication has been corrected. Correction available online 2 July 2024 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00171-7pt_PT
dc.description.abstractBackground: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. Methods: We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. Findings: Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. Interpretation: Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding: The study was funded by Medical Research Council of the UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/R009384/1), the EU’s Horizon 2020 (820655), and the EU’s Joint Research Center (JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654). AU and JK were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (22–24920S). VH has received funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement (101032087).pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health. 2023 Apr;7(4):e271-e281. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2. Epub 2023 Mar 16. Correction online 2024 Jul 2.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/9133
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relationATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623000232?via%3Dihubpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectColdpt_PT
dc.subjectHeatpt_PT
dc.subjectCold Temperaturept_PT
dc.subjectHeat Temperaturept_PT
dc.subjectMortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectMulti-Country Multi-Citypt_PT
dc.subjectCitiespt_PT
dc.subjectHealth Impact Assessmentpt_PT
dc.subjectEuropept_PT
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapt_PT
dc.subjectAvaliação do Impacte em Saúdept_PT
dc.titleExcess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europept_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardTitleATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101032087/EU
oaire.citation.endPagee281pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue4pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPagee271pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleThe Lancet Planetary Healthpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume7pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNamedas Neves Pereira da Silva
person.givenNameSusana
person.identifier.ciencia-idB718-8EF6-EBD8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2524-0548
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication92301729-57ae-47a4-bde2-8ed2d8fc20da
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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