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Global excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate change

2025-09-04Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorHundessa, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorXu, Rongbin
dc.contributor.authorYang, Zhengyu
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Qi
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorBell, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorHuber, Veronika
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Micheline
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorRoyé, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorde'Donato, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.contributor.authorHales, Simon
dc.contributor.authorAchilleos, Souzana
dc.contributor.authorKlompmaker, Jochem
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorMulti-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-16T15:40:46Z
dc.date.available2026-01-16T15:40:46Z
dc.date.issued2025-09-04
dc.descriptionMulti-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network Members: Susana da Silva, Joana Madureira, INSA.
dc.description.abstractAbstract: An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it one of the hottest years on record and raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by analyzing high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries/territories using a three-stage modeling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5 0.5) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 159,892≥204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120, 95% eCI, 116≥126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI, 100≥114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI, 62≥70), where the excess death ratio was also higher. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI, 45.71%≥61.36%) of the global heatwave-related deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to reduce future mortality burdens in the context of increasing global warming.eng
dc.description.abstractPublic summary: Over 178,000 global deaths associated with the 2023 heatwave, equivalent to 23 deaths per million. -Southern and Eastern Europe had the highest heatwave-related mortality burden. -Heatwave-related deaths were concentrated in subtropical and temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. -More than half (54.29%) of heatwave-related deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThistudy was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581). W.H. was supported by the China Scholarship Council (no. 202006380055). Z.Y. was supported by the Monash Graduate Scholarship and the Monash International Tuition Scholarship. S.L. was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (no. APP2009866). Q.Z. was supported by the Program of Qilu Young Scholars of Shandong University, Jinan, China. Y.G. was supported by the Fellowship (no. APP2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. R.X. was supported by the VicHealth Postdoctoral Fellowship 2022. S.T. was supported by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant no. 18411951600), China. A.G. was supported by the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant no. 820655), and Wellcome-funded project BREATHE (grant no. 308914/Z/23/Z). A.U. received funding from the Czech Ministry of Education Youth and Sport’s programme ERC CZ (ID: LL2410). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI (grant no. 24K13527). F.S. was supported by the Medical Research Council, United Kingdom (grant no. MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council United Kingdom (grant no. NE/R009384/1), and the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant no. 820655). V.H. was supported by a ‘Ramón y Cajal’ fellowship program of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (no. RYC2022-036948-I). Y.G. was supported by the Leader Fellowship (no. APP2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.))
dc.identifier.citationInnovation (Camb). 2025 Oct;6(10):101110. doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110. Epub 2025 Sep 4
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110
dc.identifier.eissn2666-6758
dc.identifier.pmid41084606
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10706
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherCell Press
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666675825003133?via%3Dihub
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAll-Cause Mortality
dc.subjectHeatwaves
dc.subjectGlobal Burden of Disease
dc.subjectMCC
dc.subjectExcess Death
dc.subjectDeath Rate
dc.subjectHuman-Induced Climate Change
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doença
dc.titleGlobal excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate changeeng
dc.typejournal article
dcterms.referenceshttps://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2666675825003133-mmc1.pdf
dcterms.referenceshttps://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2666675825003133-mmc2.pdf
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.citation.issue10
oaire.citation.startPage101110
oaire.citation.titleThe Innovation
oaire.citation.volume6
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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