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Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country

2023-07-12Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorLo, Eunice
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, Dann M.
dc.contributor.authorBuzan, Jonathan R.
dc.contributor.authorZscheischler, Jakob
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, Rochelle
dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm N.
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, Jan
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Éric
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Susana
dc.contributor.authorRoyé, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorUrban, Aleš
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorVicedo‐Cabrera, Ana M.
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-09T14:12:58Z
dc.date.available2023-10-09T14:12:58Z
dc.date.issued2023-07-12
dc.description.abstractCombined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipY. T. Eunice Lo was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NERC) project, HAPPI Health (Grant ID: NE/R009554/1). Dann M. Mitchell was supported by the NERC Independent Research Fellowship (Grant ID: NE/N014057/1). Malcolm N. Mistry was sup ported by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA-IF2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. Jan Kyselý and Ales Urban are supported by the Czech Science ˇ Foundation (Grant ID: GA22-24920S). Antonio Gasparrini is supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant IDs: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), NERC (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655) and European Union's Joint Research Center (Grant ID: JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654).pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationInt J Climatol. 2023:1-16. Epub 2023 Jul 12. doi: 10.1002/joc.8160pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/joc.8160pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0899-8418
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8674
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherWiley/ Royal Meteorological Societypt_PT
dc.relationMortality Risk Attributable to Thermal Discomfort Indicators with Implications of Climate Change
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8160pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectClimate and Healthpt_PT
dc.subjectDry Heatpt_PT
dc.subjectHeat Stresspt_PT
dc.subjectHeat-related Mortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectHumid Heatpt_PT
dc.subjectMCC Collaborative Research Networkpt_PT
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapt_PT
dc.titleOptimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to countrypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleMortality Risk Attributable to Thermal Discomfort Indicators with Implications of Climate Change
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101022870/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.citation.titleInternational Journal of Climatologypt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNameLo
person.familyNamedas Neves Pereira da Silva
person.givenNameEunice
person.givenNameSusana
person.identifier541661
person.identifier.ciencia-idB718-8EF6-EBD8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-7389-7272
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2524-0548
person.identifier.ridC-7133-2016
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55957267700
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com a política editorial da revistapt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication1fddff91-1600-44f4-8181-ce0d81adfb86
relation.isAuthorOfPublication49b180bc-3e03-4347-9e32-5725fd7142f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery1fddff91-1600-44f4-8181-ce0d81adfb86
relation.isProjectOfPublication50067286-ec07-41d4-8999-d32acdae398a
relation.isProjectOfPublication59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery59609b8b-2750-43e0-8fe9-155a4915a572

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