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Time series methods for obtaining excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
The occurrence of influenza epidemics during winters, in the northern hemisphere countries, is known to be
associated with observed excess mortality for all causes. A large variety of methods have been developed in
order to estimate, from weekly or monthly mortality time series, the number of influenza-associated deaths
in each season. The present work focus on the group of methods characterised by fitting statistical models to
interrupted mortality time series. The study objective is to find a common ground between these methods in
order to describe and compare them. They are unified in a single class, being categorised according to three
main parameters: the model used to fit the interrupted time series and obtain a baseline, the a priori chosen
type of periods used to estimate the influenza epidemic periods and the procedure used to fit the model to
the time series (iterative or non-iterative). This generalisation led quite naturally to the construction of a set
of user friendly R-routines, package flubase, implementing all these models. These routines were applied
to data on about 20 years of weekly Portuguese number of deaths by pneumonia and influenza showing
that, in this case, the parameter that had the highest impact on influenza-associated deaths estimates was
the a priori chosen type of period used.
Descrição
Versão impressa: Stat Methods Med Res. 2011 Aug;20(4):331-45
Palavras-chave
Time series analysis Mortality -- Statistics Epidemics Influenza Estados de Saúde e de Doença
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Stat Methods Med Res. 2011. doi: 10.1177/0962280209340201. Epub 2010 Mar 8