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Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method

2012-08-16Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorVega, Tomás
dc.contributor.authorLozano, Jose Eugenio
dc.contributor.authorMeerhoff, Tamara
dc.contributor.authorSnacken, René
dc.contributor.authorMott, Joshua
dc.contributor.authorOrtiz de Lejarazu, Raul
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-11T11:57:52Z
dc.date.available2012-09-11T11:57:52Z
dc.date.issued2012-08-16
dc.description.abstractBackground  Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. Objectives  (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. Methods  The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure. Results  The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0–4·5). Conclusions  The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe.por
dc.identifier.citationInfluenza Other Respi Viruses. 2012 Aug 16. doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00422.xpor
dc.identifier.issn1750-2640
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/1000
dc.language.isoengpor
dc.peerreviewedyespor
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltdpor
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00422.x/abstractpor
dc.subjectEpidemiologypor
dc.subjectInfluenzapor
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapor
dc.subjectModellingpor
dc.subjectSurveillancepor
dc.titleInfluenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Methodpor
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.titleInfluenza and Other Respiratory Virusespor
rcaap.rightsembargoedAccesspor
rcaap.typearticlepor

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