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Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study

2023-08Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wenzhong
dc.contributor.authorLi, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorXu, Rongbin
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shilu
dc.contributor.authorMolina, Tomás
dc.contributor.authorMasselot, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Ben
dc.contributor.authorPascal, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorRoyé, Dominic
dc.contributor.authorSheng Ng, Chris Fook
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Joel
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, Eric
dc.contributor.authorKan, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorZeka, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.contributor.authorDe la Cruz Valencia, César
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Baltazar
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, Joana
dc.contributor.authorKim, Ho
dc.contributor.authorLee, Whanhee
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yue Leon
dc.contributor.authorPan, Shih-Chun
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.contributor.authorVan Dung, Do
dc.contributor.authorGeiger, Tobias
dc.contributor.authorOtto, Christian
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Amanda
dc.contributor.authorHales, Simon
dc.contributor.authorYu, Pei
dc.contributor.authorYang, Zhengyu
dc.contributor.authorRitchie, Elizabeth A.
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yuming
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-20T15:34:24Z
dc.date.available2024-02-20T15:34:24Z
dc.date.issued2023-08
dc.description.abstractBackground: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. Methods: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5° × 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects. Findings: Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions. Interpretation: Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding: This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581). WH and RX were supported by China Scholarship Council funds (numbers 202006380055 and 201806010405). YG was supported by a Career Development Fellowship (GNT1163693) and Leader Fellowship (GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2009866). TV received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the research project QUIDIC (01LP1907A), and through the CHIPS project, part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (Sweden), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (German Aerospace Center)/Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (German Ministry of Education and Research) (grant number 01LS1904A), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Spanish State Research Agency), and Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Agency for Research) with co-funding by the EU (grant number 776608). JM was supported by a fellowship of Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). AG was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant ID MR/R013349/1), the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant ID NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655). AT was supported by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S).pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationLancet Planet Health. 2023 Aug;7(8):e694-e705. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00143-2pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00143-2pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/9131
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationAssessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation
dc.relationEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
dc.relationExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623001432?via%3Dihubpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectMortalitypt_PT
dc.subjectCyclonespt_PT
dc.subjectTime Series Studypt_PT
dc.subjectMCCpt_PT
dc.subjectClimatept_PT
dc.subjectCyclonic Stormspt_PT
dc.subjectTemperaturept_PT
dc.subjectWindpt_PT
dc.subjectAustraliapt_PT
dc.subjectDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençapt_PT
dc.subjectAvaliação do Impacte em Saúdept_PT
dc.titleGlobal short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series studypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAssessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation
oaire.awardTitleEarly life exposure to atmospheric air pollutants and potential DNA damage: Consequences on development and childhood outcomes APPEAL
oaire.awardTitleExposure to heat and air pollution in EUrope – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776608/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F115112%2F2016/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655/EU
oaire.citation.endPagee705pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue8pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPagee694pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleThe Lancet Planetary Healthpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume7pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNameNunes
person.givenNameBaltazar
person.identifier.ciencia-idAB11-AD48-A8DF
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6230-7209
person.identifier.scopus-author-id9133723200
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.embargofctAcesso de acordo com a política editorial da revista.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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relation.isProjectOfPublication164776a3-e5f1-4beb-b266-6e3357195a03
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