Best-Estimate Projections of Future Compound Extreme Heat, its Impacts and Driving Mechanisms

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Rapid climate action is needed: comparing heat vs. COVID-19-related mortality

Publication . Batibeniz, Fulden; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Jha, Srinidhi; Ribeiro, Andreia; Suarez Gutierrez, Laura; Raible, Christoph C.; Malhotra, Avni; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Lavigne, Eric; Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Masselot, Pierre; das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana; Royé, Dominic; Sera, Francesco; Tong, Shilu; Urban, Aleš; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.

The impacts of climate change on human health are often underestimated or perceived to be in a distant future. Here, we present the projected impacts of climate change in the context of COVID-19, a recent human health catastrophe. We compared projected heat mortality with COVID-19 deaths in 38 cities worldwide and found that in half of these cities, heat-related deaths could exceed annual COVID-19 deaths in less than ten years (at + 3.0 °C increase in global warming relative to preindustrial). In seven of these cities, heat mortality could exceed COVID-19 deaths in less than five years. Our results underscore the crucial need for climate action and for the integration of climate change into public health discourse and policy.

2025-01-06Journal article

Open access