Browsing by Author "Zhang, Siqi"
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- Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in EuropePublication . Masselot, Pierre; Mistry, Malcolm; Vanoli, Jacopo; Schneider, Rochelle; Iungman, Tamara; Garcia-Leon, David; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Feyen, Luc; Orru, Hans; Urban, Aleš; Breitner, Susanne; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Samoli, Evangelia; Stafoggia, Massimo; de’Donato, Francesca; Rao, Shilpa; Armstrong, Ben; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Gasparrini, Antonio; Achilleos, Souzana; Kyselý, Jan; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo; Pascal, Mathilde; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Houthuijs, Danny; Ameling, Caroline; Silva, Susana; Madureira, Joana; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Surname, First name; Zafeiratou, Sofia; Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana; Monteiro, Ana; Rai, Masna; Zhang, Siqi; Aunan, KristinBackground: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. Methods: We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. Findings: Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. Interpretation: Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios.
- Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countriesPublication . Rai, Masna; Stafoggia, Massimo; de'Donato, Francesca; Scortichini, Matteo; Zafeiratou, Sofia; Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana; Zhang, Siqi; Katsouyanni, Klea; Samoli, Evangelia; Rao, Shilpa; Lavigne, Eric; Guo, Yuming; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Maasikmets, Marek; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo; Pascal, Mathilde; Hashizume, Masahiro; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Alahmad, Barrak; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Scovronick, Noah; Garland, Rebecca M.; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Ragettli, Martina S.; Leon Guo, Yue-Liang; Pan, Shih-Chun; Li, Shanshan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sera, Francesco; Masselot, Pierre; Schwartz, Joel; Zanobetti, Antonella; Bell, Michelle L.; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, SusanneHighlights: - Heat effect modification by air pollution on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was investigated across 482 cities.- Heat effect was seen to be significantly modified by air pollutants PM10, PM2.5, O3, and NO2. -This study is the most extensive research to date investigating the heat effect modification on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. - This is the first-ever study to deeply investigate effect modifications by air pollutants such as PM2.5 and NO2.
- Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysisPublication . He, Cheng; Breitner-Busch, Susanne; Huber, Veronika; Chen, Kai; Zhang, Siqi; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell, Michelle; Kan, Haidong; Royé, Dominic; Armstrong, Ben; Schwartz, Joel; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Honda, Yasushi; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo; Kyselý, Jan; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; de’Donato, Francesca; Michelozzi, Paola; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Staglior; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Orru,Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Kim, Yoonhee; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix; Overcenco, Ala; Klompmaker, Jochem; Rao, Shilpa; Palomares, Alfonso Diz-Lois; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana; Joana Madureira; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Osorio, Samuel; Li, Shanshan; Zanobetti, Antonella; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Schneider. AlexandraObjective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. Main outcome measure: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. Results: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. Conclusion: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.