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Browsing by Author "Wen, Bo"

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  • Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe
    Publication . Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Li, Shanshan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Van Dung, Do; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de’Donato, Francesca; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Bell, Michelle L.; Guo, Yuming
    Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.
    2022-03-11Journal article Restricted access Show more
  • Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study
    Publication . Yang, Zhengyu; Huang, Wenzhong; McKenzie, Joanne E.; Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Pei; Ye, Tingting; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Madureira, Joana; Kyselý, Jan; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; MCC Collaborative Research Network
    Objective: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. Design: Time series study. Setting: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. Participants: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. Main outcome measures: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. Results: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods. Conclusions: This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.
    2023-10-04Journal article Open access Show more
  • Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality
    Publication . Guo, Qiang; Mistry, Malcolm N.; Zhou, Xudong; Zhao, Gang; Kino, Kanon; Wen, Bo; Yoshimura, Kei; Satoh, Yusuke; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Kim, Yoonhee; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Armstrong, Ben; Urban, Aleš; Katsouyanni, Klea; Masselot, Pierre; Tong, Shilu; Sera, Francesco; Huber, Veronika; Bell, Michelle L.; Kyselý, Jan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Hashizume, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan; Abrutzky, Rosana; Guo, Yuming; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Correa, Patricia Matus; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Roye, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Orru, Hans; Jaakkola, Jouni J K.; Ryti, Niilo; Pascal, Mathilde; Schneider, Alexandra; Analitis, Antonis; Entezari, Alireza; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; de'Donato, Francesca; Michelozzi, Paola; Alahmad, Barrak; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; Overcenco, Ala; Ameling, Caroline; Houthuijs, Danny; Rao, Shilpa; Carrasco, Gabriel; Seposo, Xerxes; Madureira, Joana; Silva, Susana; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Scovronick, Noah; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Ragettli, Martina S.; Pan, Shih-Chun; Guo, Yue Leon; Li, Shanshan; Schneider, Rochelle; Colistro, Valentina; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Van Dung, Do; Ngoc Dang, Tran; Honda, Yasushi
    The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (Tair) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative Tair-relative humidity correlation (CT-RH). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive CT-RH, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to Tair. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with Tair in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems.
    2024-07Journal article Open access Show more
  • Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature
    Publication . Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Forsberg, Bertil; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; Cruz Valencia, César De la; Houthuijs, Danny; Dung, Do Van; Roye, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de'Donato, Francesca; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Correa, Patricia Matus; Goodman, Patrick; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Raz, Raanan; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Pan, Shih-Chun; Rao, Shilpa; Tong, Shilu; Achilleos, Souzana; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Yoonhee; Guo, Yue Leon; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming
    Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
    2024-05-01Journal article Open access Show more