Browsing by Author "Mott, Joshua"
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- Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic MethodPublication . Vega, Tomás; Lozano, Jose Eugenio; Meerhoff, Tamara; Snacken, René; Mott, Joshua; Ortiz de Lejarazu, Raul; Nunes, BaltazarBackground Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. Objectives (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. Methods The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure. Results The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0–4·5). Conclusions The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe.
- Revision of clinical case definitions: influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infectionPublication . Fitzner, Julia; Qasmieh, Saba; Mounts, Anthony Wayne; Alexander, Burmaa; Besselaar, Terry; Briand, Sylvie; Brown, Caroline; Clark, Seth; Dueger, Erica; Gross, Diane; Hauge, Siri; Hirve, Siddhivinayak; Jorgensen, Pernille; Katz, Mark A; Mafi, Ali; Malik, Mamunur; McCarron, Margaret; Meerhoff, Tamara; Mori, Yuichiro; Mott, Joshua; Olivera, Maria Teresa da Costa; Ortiz, Justin R; Palekar, Rakhee; Rebelo-de-Andrade, Helena; Soetens, Loes; Yahaya, Ali Ahmed; Zhang, Wenqing; Vandemaele, KatelijnThe formulation of accurate clinical case definitions is an integral part of an effective process of public health surveillance. Although such definitions should, ideally, be based on a standardized and fixed collection of defining criteria, they often require revision to reflect new knowledge of the condition involved and improvements in diagnostic testing. Optimal case definitions also need to have a balance of sensitivity and specificity that reflects their intended use. After the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) initiated a technical consultation on global influenza surveillance. This prompted improvements in the sensitivity and specificity of the case definition for influenza - i.e. a respiratory disease that lacks uniquely defining symptomology. The revision process not only modified the definition of influenza-like illness, to include a simplified list of the criteria shown to be most predictive of influenza infection, but also clarified the language used for the definition, to enhance interpretability. To capture severe cases of influenza that required hospitalization, a new case definition was also developed for severe acute respiratory infection in all age groups. The new definitions have been found to capture more cases without compromising specificity. Despite the challenge still posed in the clinical separation of influenza from other respiratory infections, the global use of the new WHO case definitions should help determine global trends in the characteristics and transmission of influenza viruses and the associated disease burden.