Percorrer por autor "Hundessa, Samuel"
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- Assessing global factors associated with tropical cyclone-related mortality: A population-based longitudinal studyPublication . Huang, Wenzhong; Yang, Zhengyu; Otto, Christian; Mengel, Matthias; Hales, Simon; Zhang, Yiwen; Xu, Rongbin; Bell, Michelle L.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Kan, Haidong; Sera, Francesco; Schwartz, Joel; Lavigne, Eric; Hundessa, Samuel; Yu, Wenhua; Carlos Chua, Paul Lester; Seposo, Xerxes; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Hashizume, Masahiro; Z S Coelho, Micheline S.; Xu, Zhihu; Ye, Tingting; Yu, Pei; Wu, Yao; Wen, Bo; Liu, Yanming; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; MCC CollaboratorsBackground: The underlying factors associated with the substantial global tropical cyclone (TC)-related mortality burden, characterized by its highly variable spatiotemporal patterns, remain unclear. We aimed to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. Methods: We collected mortality records from 2034 locations in 68 countries/territories across five continents (2000-2019) to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. Bayesian ensemble models were applied to estimate the associated mortality for each TC event in each location. A random forest regression (RFR) model was employed to assess the relative statistical importance of TC and location characteristics, as well as their interactions, regarding the TC-related mortality. Findings: For TC physical characteristics, the TC-associated cumulative rainfall consistently exhibited stronger influence on mortality than TC-induced surge-driven flood depth or maximum sustained windspeed. However, sociodemographic factors, including population traits (e.g., population density, proportion of the population aged ≤ 9 years, percent of the population aged ≥ 65 years) and socioeconomic and infrastructure development (e.g., built-up ratio), showed greater relative importance than the TC physical attributes and accounted for the majority of the explained variations in TC-related mortality. Furthermore, cumulative rainfall interacted strongly with local sociodemographic conditions and was potentially the most important associated factor for disparities in mortality arising from factor interactions. Interpretation: The findings highlight the critical role of sociodemographic factors in explaining the global spatiotemporal variability of TC-related mortality, surpassing the relative importance of TC intensity. TC-related rainfall could be a key associated physical factor of the global mortality burden.
- Global excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate changePublication . Hundessa, Samuel; Huang, Wenzhong; Xu, Rongbin; Yang, Zhengyu; Zhao, Qi; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Huber, Veronika; Urban, Aleš; Coelho, Micheline; Sera, Francesco; Tong, Shilu; Royé, Dominic; Kyselý, Jan; de'Donato, Francesca; Mistry, Malcolm; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hales, Simon; Achilleos, Souzana; Klompmaker, Jochem; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research NetworkAbstract: An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it one of the hottest years on record and raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by analyzing high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries/territories using a three-stage modeling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5 0.5) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 159,892≥204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120, 95% eCI, 116≥126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI, 100≥114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI, 62≥70), where the excess death ratio was also higher. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI, 45.71%≥61.36%) of the global heatwave-related deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to reduce future mortality burdens in the context of increasing global warming.