Efficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation

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Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis

Publication . Angeli, Leonardo; Caetano, Constantino Pereira; Franco, Nicolas; Coletti, Pietro; Faes, Christel; Molenberghs, Geert; Beutels, Philippe; Abrams, Steven; Willem, Lander; Hens, Niel

Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children’s contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.

2025-03-05Artigo científico

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Entidade financiadora

European Commission
European Commission

Programa de financiamento

HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
HORIZON-RIA\HORIZON Action Grant Budget-Based

Número da atribuição

101095619