Chen, Kaide Schrijver, EvanSivaraj, SidharthSera, FrancescoScovronick, NoahJiang, LeiwenRoye, DominicLavigne, EricKyselý, JanUrban, AlešSchneider, AlexandraHuber, VeronikaMadureira, JoanaMistry, Malcolm NCvijanovic, IvanaMCC Collaborative Research NetworkGasparrini, AntonioVicedo-Cabrera, Ana M2025-02-172025-02-172024-02-27Nat Commun . 2024 Feb 27;15(1):1796. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z2041-1723http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/10352MCC Collaborative Research Network: Susana Pereira da Silva (Departamento de Epidemiologia, INSA)Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.This study reveals that population aging intensifies heat- and cold-related deaths, more so than climate change, in 50 countries. At 1.53 °C global warming, aging contributes to rising heat-related deaths, offsetting declines in cold related death.engRisk FactorsEnvironmental ImpactMortalityMCCClimate ChangeCold TemperatureGlobal WarmingHot TemperatureAvaliação do RiscoDeterminantes da Saúde e da Doençajournal article10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z38413648